Hello ESTers, how have you been? 

This is the Observatory, and here is InsideMENA, the EST’s bimonthly newsletter that uncovers the latest news from the Middle East and North Africa touching upon the EU’s interests and beyond, as well as a light dose of culture pills you can find at the end.



And now, without further ado, let’s dive right InsideMENA!



Edited by Hafssa Fakher Elabiari and Sibilla Gosso



Note that the information, views and opinions set out in the newsletter are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion or position of the editors, of the European Student ThinkTank, and of their affiliated-entities or institutions.







Trump’s Gulf Tour: New Deals, New Questions

By Michele

On 13 May, US President Donald Trump began his three-day Gulf tour in Doha, before continuing to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. The visit focused on economic deals and foreign policy issues, and delivered a mix of significant and, at times, surprising decisions.



Gifts before deals. Before even flying to Doha, Trump made the headlines with a controversial announcement: the White House would accept a Luxury airplane from Qatar to be used as the new Air Force One, which raised concerns over the Qatari “gift”. However, the timely release of American-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander, following indirect US-Hamas talks, the day before Trump visited Qatar, set the stage for successful talks. The result: POTUS secured an agreement for $243 billion of Qatari investments, especially in the aviation sector.



Meeting the buddy. Moving on to Riyadh, Trump’s longstanding friendship with Saudi prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) led to $600 billion in various agreements on US-Saudi cooperation, including a record-breaking $142 billion arms deal. Most importantly, MBS brought regional politics to the table inviting Syria’s interim President Al Sharaa to meet Trump. The meeting led to a long awaited yet unexpected decision: the lifting of all Caesar Act sanctions on Syria, a process many had expected to happen gradually, if at all.



Making big moves. The UAE matched their fellow Gulf states by agreeing to $200 Billion of investments in the American economy, mainly in the energy and steel industries, renewing a commitment to increase the figure to $1.4 trillion over the next decade. For his part, Trump agreed to fund the creation of a US-UAE joint AI campus and to begin exporting advanced chips that had previously been withheld.



Trump developed strong regional relations with GCC leaders, especially those of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, during his first administration and is now leveraging those ties to deliver on his promises to boost the American economy. Conversely, the steady decrease of oil prices in 2025 raises questions over whether Gulf countries will be able to live up to their commitments.





Russia-Ukraine in Istanbul Talks Yield no Ceasefire

By Hafssa

First direct talks in three years. Last Friday, Türkiye chaired peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, the first direct talks since March 2022. Ukraine sent a high-level delegation, including its defence and foreign ministers, while the Kremlin turned up with a low-profile team. Not surprising, really. Zelenskyy had made it clear he would only attend if Putin did too. In the end, neither showed up. Still, Zelenskyy was in Ankara – while the delegation met at the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul – perhaps making a point. The United States, a key player that pushed for the talks to happen, sent a high-level delegation as well, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio. But the Russians refused to let the Americans sit at the same table. Fair enough.



I am ready for peace… Are you? The meeting lasted less than two hours and, aside from the 1,000-person prisoner swap, didn’t yield much. The main reason? The two sides clearly aren’t equally committed to peace. Ukraine and its allies are pushing for a 30-day ceasefire (you know, to actually talk). Russia, on the other hand, wants Ukraine to cede parts of its territory (including Crimea, annexed in 2014), reduce its military capacity, and abandon its NATO ambitions… in short, a long list of bold demands that are almost similar to asking a pig to fly. Ukraine is unlikely to compromise on its sovereignty or territorial integrity. To make matters worse, Russia’s lead negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, reportedly said that Moscow is prepared to fight for as long as it takes, referencing the 21-year war with Sweden (1700-1721). Not exactly a hopeful note.



The bottom line. Putin’s absence definitely casts doubt on how seriously Moscow is taking these talks, but it doesn’t make them meaningless. The fact that Russian and Ukrainian officials sat at the same table is, in itself, a milestone. A few weeks ago, that would have sounded like a fairytale.