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Hello ESTers, how have you been?



This is the Observatory, and here is InsideMENA, the EST’s bimonthly newsletter that uncovers the latest news from the Middle East and North Africa touching upon the EU’s interests and beyond, as well as a light dose of culture pills you can find at the end.



With the winter holidays approaching, InsideMENA will take a break, but don’t despair - we’ll be back on January 17th. Thank you all for the support shown in 2024 and see you in 2025 for your by-weekly dose of MENA news.



And now, without further ado, let’s dive right InsideMENA!



PS: If you are reading this on the website, don’t forget to subscribe to InsideMENA to directly receive it in your email every fortnight!



Edited by Hafssa Fakher Elabiari and Sibilla Gosso




Edited by Hafssa Fakher Elabiari and Sibilla Gosso



Note that the information, views and opinions set out in the newsletter are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion or position of the editors, of the European Student ThinkTank, and of their affiliated-entities or institutions.



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The Syrian Regime Collapsed

By Hafssa

Nowhere to be found. After 13 years of forced disappearance, torture, death and trauma, the infamous sloganEjak e-ddor ya doctor” – It’s your turn, doctor – has finally come true. President Bashar al-Assad, a London-trained ophthalmologist, fled to Russia. Think about it, who else would have opened their door to the Assads?! This came after the opposition, led by the so-called Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), easily seized key cities, including Aleppo, Daraa, Suwayda and the capital Damascus, with little to no resistance from regime forces. Clearly, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and the army are no longer eager to support the Baathist regime. For various reasons, they’re sick of Assad!



Endless horrors. Assad’s departure unlocked the regime’s prison system, uncovering the fate of thousands of detainees, including foreigners and children. The horrors coming from Saydnaya and other human slaughterhouses, including the testimonies of those who thought Hafez al-Assad was still in power, caused global indignation. While few were able to celebrate reunions, the majority accepted that loved ones took their last breath in the worst way possible. The Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) estimates that around 100,000 missing have probably been killed. See, Assad’s Syria was never safe…



Is it worth the risk? With the collapse of the Ba’athist regime, thousands of Syrian refugees in Jordan, Lebanon and Türkiye are ‘voluntarily’ returning home. The UN expects the return of one million Syrians in the first six months of 2025. In theory, this is feasible, but in practice, it might not be because Syria is not yet ready to grant returnees the safety and dignity they yearn for. A fragmented territory, a plummeting currency, a debilitated infrastructure and… a rogue neighbour. Clearly, post-war recovery and reconstruction cannot happen overnight. But wait, is the Syrian conflict over?



Israel’s Indifference to Syrian Sovereignty
By Hannah

I have carte blanche. Since the fall of Assad, Israel has repeatedly violated Syrian sovereignty by carrying out over 600 strikes across Syria. Targeting weapons sites and military infrastructure, Israeli officials cite the threat of these capabilities falling into the hands of armed groups like ISIS or al-Qaeda. Yet there isn’t only a disregard for Syrian airspace, but also for Syria’s territorial integrity. Israeli troops violated the 1974 Disengagement Agreement, which ended the Yom Kippur War and established a demilitarised buffer zone in the Syrian territory.



In the name of security. According to Israeli PM Netanyahu, the IDF’s ‘temporary occupation’ aims at securing the Israeli border, and that the troops will remain for the foreseeable future. Furthermore, he has gained approval for funding to double Israel’s population on the Golan Heights, an area illegally occupied since the 1967 Six-Day War. So far, Syria’s de facto leader – Ahmed al-Sharaa (aka al-Julani) – and interim PM – Mohammed al-Bashir – have maintained their priority was to tackle domestic concerns. But what does that even mean when your neighbour is aggressing you?



Widespread condemnation. Various regional and European powers have condemnedIsrael’s plan to expand settlements, calling for withdrawal. While Israel points to the potential threat from Syria’s new leadership, previously tied to al-Qaeda, al-Sharaa suggests this was a false pretext for invasion, arguing that Syria is not interested in new conflicts. Overall, it remains clear this should be a moment for reconstruction and justice for the Syrian people rather than the further destruction and uncertainty Israel’s actions are producing.





All Eyes Back on the Gulf for World Cup 2034
By Giulia

A not-so-shocking announcement: with no other bidders in sight, the bid for the 2034 World Cup was less of a race and more of a formality. Beyond football, it’s a golden opportunity for Saudi Arabia to show off its Vision 2030 reforms, attract visitors, and perhaps, shift the conversation away from human rights violations and its reliance on fossil fuel.



The precedents. If Saudi Arabia needs a playbook, it doesn’t have to look far — just next door, in fact. Qatar’s 2022 World Cupwas a cornerstone of Qatar’s development strategy, boosting its economy, infrastructure, and tourism sector. Saudi Arabia is eyeing a similar impact but on a much larger scale. The visitor numbers are expected to dwarf Qatar’s, and the stakes are higher. New stadiums, upgraded transport systems, and an explosion in hotel capacity are all on the horizon.



What’s coming? Hosting the World Cup could cost Saudi Arabia around $250 billion, a hefty investment that’s expected to boost its non-oil GDP by 1.25% annually over the next decade. However, Riyadh will need to navigate sensitive issues like alcohol policies, labour rights, and cultural readiness to host a global audience. Drawing on Qatar’s 2022 playbook — managing logistics while addressing international criticism — could offer valuable insights as Saudi Arabia prepares for this monumental event.



Regional growth. Despite these hurdles, the benefits will echo throughout the region. While the UAE only got a small GDP bump from Qatar’s 2022 tournament, this time a unified GCC tourist visa could make Gulf-hopping easier, boosting tourism across the bloc. Longer-term effects could include sustained regional economic growth driven by Saudi infrastructure projects, with local businesses benefiting from World Cup contracts. The success of the tournament will help solidify the region's reputation as a hub for major global events.





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