Iran's Nuclear Agenda Back in the Spotlight at IAEA’s Meeting

By Fatin

The IAEA’s Board of Governors took place this week with the ever-controversial Iran’s nuclear dossier unsurprisingly taking centre stage. What is surprising, however, is the E3 stance – the European coalition comprising Germany, France and the UK - that this time came ready to confront the Islamic Republic with a draft resolution aimed at pressuring the regime to provide explanations on uranium traces found at undeclared sites. Despite US initial hesitation, the resolution censuring Iran was adopted on Wednesday, with only Russia and China opposing it. Although the IAEA board resolutions have no legal force, they carry considerable political and diplomatic weight.



IRI's ongoing resistance to nuclear oversight. The resolution follows the last one adopted 18 months ago, which had ordered Tehran to urgently comply with a years-long IAEA investigation into the uranium traces. No surprise: the directive has been consistently ignored. Adding to the concerns is the recent visit of the IAEA chief, who criticised the country for its lack of cooperation on inspections and transparency. The visit follows Iran’s decision to refine its nuclear doctrine and stop its commitments to the Additional Protocol of the JCPOA – Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action / Nuclear Deal – for over three years, during which the agency has been unable to access information on the nuclear facilities and has lost knowledge about the production and stockpile of nuclear material in Iran.



Fuelling the fire. While Western concerns mount over Iran’s nuclear programme, Tehran keeps on fueling the fire by continuing the pursuit of uranium enrichment. Secret Yellowcake!No, no dessert for you, only a yellowish powder that seems to be at the centre of secret negotiations with Niger's military junta for the acquisition of 300 tons of yellowcake - a type of uranium concentrate powder which is considered key in the uranium enrichment process. The deal would pose a significant challenge to the numerous attempts at preventing the country from developing nuclear capabilities, while escalating international tensions. In the last three years, Iran has in fact significantly expanded its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, far surpassing what is necessary for commercial and civilian nuclear activities, as Tehran has long claimed. The current level of enrichment is close to the 90% threshold required for weapons-grade material, edging Iran ever closer to a critical and potentially irreversible tipping point.





Rafah’s Crisis, Biden’s Deal and Regional Conflict
By Andrea

Israel’s military operation on Gaza continues with constant air strikes, sending frightful images all around the world. Despite the UN’s top court ordering PM Netanyahu to stop his offensive on the territory, international pressure is failing to unleash change. Just last Saturday, a drone strike hit the Al-Nazla school, which was being used as a shelter, resulting in the deaths of 10 people.



President Joe Biden has put forward a plan to end the conflict in Gaza, pressured by the high civilian death toll. What would this deal entail?The framework has three phases that start with the release of hostages and Israel’s withdrawal from ‘all populated areas of Gaza’. Is there hope for this truce? We would be lying if we said this is the first attempt of a ceasefire. And to make matters worse, this proposal is not very different from others previously proposed. However, reactions are more hopeful this time. The international community gave strong support, as well as some Israeli politicians and the families of the hostages. Hamas described it as ‘positive’ without getting into detail. PM Netanyahu stated they had accepted the framework, but claimed it was flawed and in need of work.



In the meantime, the regional conflict continues: Israel has low-level military operations with Iran-friendly groups in Lebanon, Yemen and Syria. Last Monday, a factory near Aleppo was hit, killing twelve fighters, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). Regular strikes in the region maintain escalation concerns, raising fears of a broader conflict with aggravated violence and humanitarian crises.





Sudan: Ongoing Conflict and Civilian Efforts for Resolution

By Isabela

Patiently waiting. After the (un)promising Jeddah Declaration in November 2023, which wes the results of a long and stalled US- and Saudi-led dialogue between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), talks stalledin a dramatic negotiating tug-of-war that did not lead to anything concrete.



Darfur under attack. In the meantime, the conflict rages on, particularly in Darfur. The Sudanese Air Force (SAF) continues its airstrikes on RSF positions around El Fasher. The RSF has retaliated with artillery shelling, resulting in numerous civilian casualties. An emergency meeting was held by the Darfur regional government to address the dire situation in El Fasher, the last state capital in Darfur not under RSF control. The UN Special Advisor on the Prevention of Genocide has warned the Security Council that the conflict bears the risk of genocide, with allegations of such crimes already provided. Over 120 people have been killed and nearly 1,000 wounded in the past weeks alone. Additionally, almost 20,000 people have fled the region, with the UN reporting severely deteriorating humanitarian conditions for about 800,000 civilians in the El Fasher area.



A light at the end of the tunnel? In a bid to end the ongoing war, the Civil Democratic Forces alliance, Tagadom, launched its founding conference in Addis Ababa last week. With over 600 participants, including former Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, the conference aimed to build a broad civil front - so far largely sidelined in truce talks - to stop the war and restore the transitional civilian government. Hamdok called for an immediate ceasefire and urged the international community to pressure the conflicting parties to return to negotiations. Tagadom's conference follows the signing of the ‘Understanding Framework Vision for Managing the Transitional Founding Period’ in Cairo, which is expected to host a conference on Sudan in late June.





Tunisia's Omni-Alignment Amid China's and Europe's Ambitions

By Valentina

On Friday, 31 May 2024, Tunisia and China announced a strategic partnership, pledging to deepen cooperation across a wide variety of fields, including infrastructure, energy, green investments, and, most importantly, to step up bilateral ties under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework. This announcement came rather peculiarly from the Chinese Embassy in Italy, following a cosy tête-à-tête between Presidents Xi Jinping and Kaïs Saïed in China. Ah, the diplomacy of modern times! As the West and BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, plus the newcomers Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE – indulge in a not-so-friendly geopolitical chess match, one might ponder whether this unexpected move from the Chinese Embassy in Italy was a subtle nudge for Italy to both reconsider its stance on the BRI and cooperate on the Mattei Plan. Or, perhaps, a provocation aimed at stirring the pot of geopolitical rivalry in North Africa.



Tunisia’s dalliance with both Italy and the European Union adds an intriguing layer to this unfolding drama. China’s growing influence could potentially widen the rift between Tunisia and its European partners. Mind you, Tunisia’s cooperation with the EU has always been more of a marriage of convenience than a true partnership. The Memorandum of Understanding, backed by Italy and signed in 2023, was a hot potato for Tunisian authorities, largely because it was tied to the IMF’s structural adjustment programme – a proposal Tunisia found far from beneficial. Tunisia’s flirtation with the IMF continues as they work towards a 'fair' economic programme. Alternatively, perhaps Tunisia might find solace in the arms of BRICS institutions like the New Development Bank. The country appears to enjoy its two-timing game, maintaining necessary ties with both the West and BRICS, a testament to the omni-aligned stance some African nations now adopt.



Meanwhile, back on the domestic front, President Saïed has been busy tightening his grip on media and freedom of expressionthrough Decree Law 54 on cybercrime and other repressive measures. Civil society organisations, particularly those defending migrants’ and refugees’ rights against the controversial EU-Tunisia migration deal, have been bearing the brunt of this crackdown. Saïed’s actions suggest a regressive slide back to pre-2011 Tunisia, a move that seems to contradict the European Union’s professed commitment to support civil society. Every deal signed with Tunisia seems to further empower Saied's regime against its own people and African migrants.

Will China approach Tunisia differently, or is the pursuit of political and economic influence in North Africa – often ignoring civil society – a common goal for both Europe and BRICS? As Tunisia navigates between Western and BRICS suitors, who will truly benefit from these strategic partnerships? Only time will tell if Tunisia’s omni-alignment is a strategic genius move or a precarious balancing act.





Now, a bit of culture...

In this section, we uncover some of the most listened and watched musicians, writers or YouTubers of the MENA or new publications, articles or books either from or on the region. If you have any suggestions, you’re always welcome to tell us via our email!



The Making of Revolution. Is it true that Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution did not start in 2011, and that Bourguiba and Ben Ali were not the only political figures with a say in Tunisia’s contemporary trajectory? In Revolution and Democracy: A Century of Protestscapes, Larbi Sadikiand Layla Saleh delve into Tunisia’s revolutionary milieu to explore six protescapes from the 1960s to 2011. Contrary to the Orientalist view that portrays the people as passive agents, the authors maintain, first and foremost, that protests are a space of power contestation and civic engagement, linking bottom-up activism (Hirak) to revolution (Thawra). Revolution and Democracy is particularly relevant for academics and students interested in post-colonial and insurrectionary politics in North Africa.