Gaza Ceasefire False Hopes as Rafah Invasion Starts

By Fatin

Crossing every red line. It happened: Israel launched a ground invasion of Rafah where over 1.5 million Palestinians are trapped; some waiting for evacuation, others praying for salvation. The invasion caused global indignation because Rafah is central to the flow of humanitarian aid. The World Health Organisation stressed that the assault would aggravate the health situation in Gaza. Even Israel’s faithful ally, the US, paused a bomb shipment. And what about the EU? Still no signs of life from them, but in last month’s EU election debate, Von der Leyen had reassured that a ground invasion of Rafah would not have been accepted and some actions would have been taken. If nothing is going on at the top, it does at the bottom: on Wednesday, from her window VDL could see EU civil servants, institutional staff and trainees protesting against too soft an action to stop the war in Gaza. Meanwhile, Dublin, Ljubljana, Madrid and Valletta are setting to recognise Palestine in two weeks.



Sabotaging peace? In a twist to the narrative, Hamas accepted the ceasefire terms proposed by Qatar and Egypt. The terms include the release of hostages in exchange for a number of Palestinians held by Israel, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Palestinian territories as well as the reconstruction of Gaza and the lifting of the siege. But not to say Israel refused the ceasefire, sparking a debate on whether it is genuinely interested in the release of hostages. Some pundits maintain that Hamas’ proposal acceptance was intended to leave the ball in the Israeli court. Now, it remains to see whether the Netanyahu government would give the proposal a second thought or continue amassing domestic opposition.





Türkiye Changes the Tone with Israel
By Hafssa

From words to actions. Last week, Türkiye suspended all trade relations with Israel to compel the Netanyahu government to a ceasefire. Erdoğan stated that the embargo would continue as long as Israel blocked the free passage of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Take note please: this move comes after endorsing South Africa’s genocide case and giving a warm reception to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Istanbul.



Israel is upset. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz called Erdoğan “a dictator,” stressing the centrality of Turkish exports for the Israeli economy. In 2023, Ankara’s exports to Israel accounted for 2.1% of Türkiye’s total exports (nearly 5.4 billion dollars). Not only: 40% of Israel’s oil consumption comes from Azerbaijan through the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Will Ankara manage to pressure Baku, which maintains cordial relations with Israel, to follow suit? Certainly not because tarnished Turkish-Azerbaijani ties would be a silver lining for Armenia.



Please don’t hurt me. Since the AKP’s defeat in municipal elections - if you missed it, have a look at our early April issue to know more about Erdoğan's AKP knockout - in part due to dissatisfaction with the ruling party’s double game on the Gaza war, Erdoğan has substituted words for actions. The reason? The incumbent learned that failing to take tangible actions on Gaza will further alienate the constituency, potentially toppling the AKP in the 2028 presidency. In simpler words, it is ultimately about taking action to win people's hearts and votes.





Watch Out! Sahel is Boiling (Again)

By Laura

Chad, it’s been a while. On Monday, Chad held the first presidential election since the 2021 coup that brought Mahamat Déby Itno to power following the death of his father, long-serving President Idriss Déby. The elections mark the end of the three-year transition of N'Djamena - Chad is first among the Sahelian coup states (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger) - but no surprises are expected from the ballot box. In fact, numerous violations of the electoral code were recorded both before and during the vote! And just three days ago the EU “raised its voice”, halting funding for the electoral process in Chad.



Goodbye Washington! American troops are about to announce the details of their imminent withdrawal from Niger after the military junta cut the ties earlier this year. The departure comes against the backdrop of Niger's strategic significance in counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel. It’s the feeling of betrayal… the arrival of new Russian military instructors and equipment in Niamey signals an expansion of Russian military presence in the region. This influx raises questions about its potential impact on security dynamics in the Sahel, particularly amid ongoing concerns about terrorism and instability.



Ghazouani's re-election bid amid Sahel uncertainty. In the midst of increasing jihadist threats and positioning itself as a beacon of stability in the Sahel region, Mauritania expects presidential elections in June. Current President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani officially announced his candidacy for a second term, igniting debates over his administration's performance, particularly regarding economic reforms, security, and human rights. That said, the race will be relatively easy for the incumbent as the Mauritanian opposition remains innocuous and divided. The outcome of the elections will not only shape Mauritani’s political landscape but also have implications for regional stability.





A new Maghreb Union on the Horizon?

By Laura

Reviving a dead dream. On 22 April, the Presidents of Algeria Abdelmadjid Tebboune, and Tunisia, Kaid Saied, and the President of the Libyan Presidential Council, ​Mohamed Al Menfi, convened in Tunis to discuss the prospects of establishing a new Maghreb Union. The meeting saw the three heads addressing common political, economic, and social concerns, placing at the forefront migration and security concerns in the Sahel. The rendez-vous was a follow-up to discussions initiated during the gas summit held in Algiers last March.



Where are Morocco and Mauritania? The absence of invitations extended to Morocco and Mauritania implies the possibility of forming a Maghreb union organisation excluding these two states. If the Moroccan media accused Algiers of seeking a Rabat-free Maghrebi alliance to overcome isolation, Algeria’s Foreign Minister Attaf stated that the initiative was intended to fill a void, at a time when the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) is "in a coma". Does that make sense? Probably not. Anyways, Libya rejected the Algerian proposal, supporting instead the AMU membership.



Implications for the EU. For the EU, this alliance might pose both opportunities and challenges: while increased stability and cooperation between North Africa and the Sahel could alleviate security concerns and migration pressures, it also raises questions about the EU's role and influence in the region amidst growing regional initiatives and partnerships. The meeting pointed tothe “danger of foreign interference in the Sahel and the Sahara Desert” and called for an “absolute rejection to foreign interference in Libyan affairs”.





Now, a bit of culture...

In this section, we uncover some of the most listened and watched musicians, writers or YouTubers of the MENA or new publications, articles or books either from or on the region. If you have any suggestions, you’re always welcome to tell us via our email!



The dark face of reform. It all started with the murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018. Under Crown Prince Muhammad ibn Salman, or MBS, Saudi Arabia is undergoing massive reforms under the banner of the so-called Vision 2030. What was once exclusively known for oil and pilgrimage is now rebranding into a ‘modern’ country. However, reform is far from free. In The Son King: Reform and Repression in Saudi Arabia, exiled academic Madawi al-Rasheed dives into a Saudi Arabia where loyalty is pledged to the ruler rather than the nation; a Saudi Arabia where reform is accorded in exchange for apoliticality. The Son King is particularly relevant for academics and students interested in political opposition in the Gulf.



Desert Oasis: where films meet the sand. FiSahara is an annual international film festival held in the Saharawi refugee camps of Tindouf, Algeria. The festival aims to raise awareness about the Western Sahara conflict and the plight of Sahrawi refugees through film screening, discussions, and cultural events. It serves as a platform for Sahrawi filmmakers to showcase their work and for international filmmakers to express solidarity with the Sahrawi cause. This year, the festival was held from 29 April to 5 May. A great opportunity to celebrate the uniting power of culture across the vast desert landscape.



Good World Press Freedom Day, but not in the MENA! On 3 May, we celebrated World Press Freedom Day around the world to honour and support the courageous work of thousands of journalists who put their lives at risk to ensure transparent, free and fair information in difficult times. Once again, the MENA ranks at the bottom of press freedom indexes and has been declared as the most dangerous region for journalists in 2023.

As young researchers drawn to this extremely fascinating region, we want to express our solidarity and gratitude for those who risk their lives for telling us about the Middle East and North Africa from the inside.



نحن كمجموعة باحثين مهتمين بمنطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا، نعبر عن تضامننا مع كل الناس الذين يخاطرون بحياتهم من 



أجل إخبارنا بحقيقة ما يجري في المنطقة. لكم منا كل الإحترام و التقدير.