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26 April 2024

News 🤝🇪🇺🌍

Hello ESTers, how have you been?



Here is the Observatory, and this is InsideMENA, the EST’s bimonthly newsletter that uncovers the latest facts and events from the Middle East and North Africa touching upon the EU’s interests and beyond.



Spring is fully here, and between fighting hay fever and soaking in the sun, the Observatory has still managed to put together a compelling and insightful analysis of what has been going on in the region. So, if you want to know more about it, read on! Also, if you missed the first issue of this month, catch up with it here and check out our early April insights.



Ps. If you are reading this on the website, don’t forget to subscribe to InsideMENA to directly receive it in your email every fortnight!



InsideMENA is edited by Blanca Gonzalez Martinez and Luca Saviolo





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MidEast on the Edge: Escalation or New Deterrence Equilibria?

By Luca and Fatin

First time for everything!On 13 April, hundreds of Iranian drones and cruise missiles were launched into the Israeli skies in response to the Tel Aviv bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus 13 days earlier. Needless to say,a new response from Netanyahu has already been given, and targeted directly at a military base near Isfahan. The province is also home to Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center and the Natanz uranium enrichment plant, the main uranium enrichment facility in Iran.



A new open confrontation era? Ehi, slow down and don’t provoke the self-fulfilling prophecy. Many have claimed and warned of a regional escalation of the MidEast conflict, but reality might differ at a closer and more careful look. First: yes, you’re right, that was the first Iran’s direct attack on Israeli territory, but the effects were pretty much nil, weren't they? Khamenei has over the weekend admitted with his top military leaders that Iran hit little, and only secondary targets. And the response? Well, hard diplomacy! If the Iranian one was the first attack on Israel, jeopardising such an unstable, but so long-standing equilibrium, Tel Aviv was not a fresher in the remote-bombing ball… And that one was not even the hardest. Israel has indeed carried out several attacks on Iranian soil in the past - both before and after 7 October 2023 - but no escalation or deterrence violation was triggered. What should change this time? Also, don’t forget that Tel Aviv is a master at keeping regional escalation in check: the Lebanon-Israeli cumulative deterrence should tell us something!



Do it but scale down, please! These are roughly the words heard by Netanyahu when he made Washington aware of the upcoming Israeli response.The attack was indeed initially meant to be broader in scope, but after a meeting with Joe Biden and the German and British Foreign Ministers, the Israeli leader was convinced to partially give up on his retaliatory plans to avoid a regional escalation. Nothing new from Brussels. After an internal stalemate between the EEAS and the Council last week, EU Foreign Ministers met in Luxembourg on Mondayto impose additional sanctions to counter Tehran’s production of drones and missiles. Click here for the rationale behind the new sanctions, but leave some space in your mind to think about what consequences these measures might have on an already wrecked JCPOA.



Stop thinking Eurocentrically: The latest events have undoubtedly exacerbated the existing speculation and fear of a possible escalation in the region. The Gulf states, which are desperately trying to prevent a broader regional war, had lots to do. Following the Iranian attack, the Saudi Foreign Ministry showed deep concerns and called for restraint among all parties to avoid conflict. Qatar’s Emir Al-Thani and the UAE also joined Saudi Arabia in advocating for de-escalation. The Gulf team has now to find a balance, avoiding public backlash while pushing for dialogue and de-escalation during this crisis.



Erdoğan is calling too! Türkiye has followed its regional neighbours urging de-escalation. That’s it? Not really, as usual, the Turkish Sultan did not miss the opportunity to overtly blame Israel, while advocating for the Palestinian cause. Egypt’s President, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, also expressed his concerns, defending Iran’s retaliatory action and asking both parties to avoid taking steps that could further destabilise the already unstable region.



More than just words: in addition to condemning any regional escalation, Amman went further. Numerous sources reported that Jordan’s air defenses intercepted Iranian drones heading toward Israel, triggering heated reactions from Tehran. King Abdullah II’s reply was sharp: Jordan would not become a battleground for Iran and Israel. Amman was not alone, maybe… if some sources started speculating about a direct intervention of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, more evidence was provided on intelligence cooperation and information sharing by Saudi Arabia and the UAE with Israel and the US on Iranian striking intentions. It has also been reported that they facilitated the use of their airspace and provided radar tracking.

Sudan Civil War: First Anniversary in Paris

By Isabela

The good guys met in Paris. On April 15th, one year after the outbreak of the civil war in Khartoum, France, Germany and the EU organised a humanitarian conference for Sudan that brought together ministers and representatives of 58 States, international organisations and agencies. More than 2 billion euros were raised by international donors, including 354 million and 541 million from the European Commission and European MSs respectively. The conference took place at a time of renewed efforts and diplomatic momentum fostered by the new US Special Envoy for Sudan Tom Perriello. Btw, take a listen to the last episode of MENA Stories to know more about him and his role in paving a way towards peace talks despite mounting internal and external hurdles.



Strong-willed but few facts. Once again, the European Commission confirmed itself as one of the biggest donors in the humanitarian crisis in Sudan. Only below the World Bank to be precise, but there’s no need here to elaborate on their financial capacity discrepancy. A different story is however how many of these will actually cross Sudan’s borders and reach the population. The Financial Tracking Service of UN OCHA shows that only 49% of funds required were met in 2023. In addition, EU funds have partially gone to neighbouring countries and communities hosting those who have fled war by crossing national borders. Not to say: this has sparked rumours about the EU’s framing of the Sudanese crisis in migration terms, and the Oped signed by Josep Borrell, High Representative of the EU and VP of the Commission, and Janez Lenarčič, EU Commissioner for Crisis Management, in early April seems to point in this direction.





Libya’s Political Conundrum
By Pablo

During the UN Security Council meeting last week, the UN’s special envoy for Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, resigned from his position. The Senegalese diplomat, who had been appointed in September 2022 as the Head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) cited that all the efforts to achieve a conflict resolution had been met “with stubborn resistance, unreasonable expectations, and indifference to the interests of the Libyan people”. In other words, according to Bathily, Libyan political leaders would not let go of their throne. Take a set and let’s explain…



One more piece: This news is just an addition to the long list of failed attempts to achieve any solution to the civil war that has been affecting Libya since the fall and assassination of Muhammar al Qadaffi in 2011. For newcomers, Libya is virtually a failed state since then, and has remained split between two alleged parallel administrations for most of the time: the current Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli led by Abdul Hamid al-Dbeibeh, and the House of Representatives (HoR), that support the Libyan National Army, led by Khalifa Haftar from Tobruk. In addition to this, many other nuances made the task of Bathily probably one of the most difficult jobs on the planet.



Like an onion, Libya’s political dialogue has many layers… To the two-party game mentioned above we must add the several militias and Islamic State paramilitaries present in the country, which pledge easier allegiance to informal clans than to official institutions. Moreover, Libya is the field of a battle for resources such as oil, gas or the scarce access to water, which are controlled by these militias and leaders. Finally, neither of these governments has any support of the law: they have all remained in power longer than the mandates allowed which they have used to throw accusations at each other. But getting out of the onion is not easy. In a policy brief published by EUROMeSCo, I explained how the role of UNSMIL had already declined, and that international solutions could only come from reintegrating the population leaving out elite bargaining.





Tunisia Today: Legal Struggles and Migration Dynamics

By Laura

Opposition targets Tunisia's President. Last week, the Defence Committee of Political Detainees pledged to sue Tunisia’s President, Kaïs Saied, and his officials, over the arbitrary detention of around 50 political figures in custody for more than a year. In February 2023, after the Minister of Justice received a letter warning about certain individuals’ potential national plot, 52 powerful Tunisian men were arrested under charges of treason and threatening security. The investigation, which concluded on 16 April, upheld the charges for 40 of those investigated, while dropping the rest. Now, the Defence Committee is concerned about ongoing efforts to extend the detention of the arrested individuals beyond the legal limits. As a committee member stated, the organisation will pursue legal action through international courts to demand the release of any individuals unlawfully detained past midnight on Friday.



Global support and solidarity. Not only is support for those imprisoned found internally, but internationally, Kaïs Saied confronts numerous critics. One year after Rached Ghannouchi's arrest, an International Committee for Solidarity with Rached Ghannouchi was formed. The committee, comprising intellectuals from all parts of the world, aims to raise awareness of the 82-year-old politician’s situation. Accused of receiving foreign funding to finance his political party, Ghannouchi has been a vocal critic of Tunisia’s increasingly powerful President.



Migration, the constant hot topic. On a different note, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni advocated on Wednesday for a "fresh approach" towards African migration,during a visit to Tunisia, one of the key departure points for undocumented migrants heading towards Europe. The Italian Prime Minister has already emphasised on other occasions the need to improve conditions in the countries of origin to give residents in Africa a chance not to emigrate. Moreover, Meloni, acknowledging the value of the Tunisia-Italy cooperation in the fight against human trafficking, has concurred with Saied’s stance that Tunisia should not serve as a destination for migrants originating from other African countries.



Now, a bit of culture...

In this section, we uncover some of the most listened and watched musicians, writers or YouTubers of the MENA or new publications, articles or books either from or on the region. If you have any suggestions, you’re always welcome to tell us via our email!



A journey like no other. What does living in Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya and Hafez al-Assad’s Syria look like for a child born in France? How has the Middle East evolved between 1978 and 2011? In The Arab of the Future, French-Syrian cartoonist Riad Sattouf depicts a volatile Middle East, almost as volatile as the household he grew up in. The novel is divided into six volumes, each depicting a different historical period. The author does not hesitate to use subtle humour to convey important ideas about dictatorship and the history of the Middle Eat. The Arab of the Future is a must-read for anyone interested in Middle Eastern history.



Multimedia storytelling. Mounira Al Solh, an extraordinary Lebanese artist based in the Netherlands, got a chance to exhibit her art at the Lebanese pavilion of the Venice Biennale 2024. “Her multimedia installation A Dance with her Myth – combining painting, drawing, sculpture, embroidery, and video – plunges visitors in ancient Phoenicia through modern plastic and visual techniques” reads the Biennale website.



Don’t forget to welcome new friends from the Gulf! This week, the European Commission has adopted a relaxation of visa rules alongside the EU-GCC High Level Forum on Regional Security and Cooperation in Luxembourg. The new rules provide for a 5-years Schengen visa that will allow citizens of Bahrain, Oman and Saudi Arabia to travel across Europe!



LAST BUT NOT LEAST! Don’t miss out our new episode of MENA Stories, the EST Observatory EU-MENA's podcast series that uncovers and narrates facts and events from the region. This month, Hafssa has covered the first anniversary of the war in Sudan and shed light on the new diplomatic push promoted by the new US Special Envoy for Sudan. Is Tom Perriello the closest hope for ending the dramatic civil war that is devastating Khartoum and the whole country?



For any questions or suggestions, don’t hesitate to reach us out at [email protected]!



Learn more about EST at Our Website.



See you in two weeks, inshallah!

The Observatory







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