Mideast diplomacy amid false hopes and raw reality

By Andrea 

Note: Due to the evolving nature of the situation, please note that the news is current at the time of writing (6 November). This piece of news is not intended to show any position of the Observatory and its members who express their solidarity to all the people who are suffering under the noise of bombs and rockets.



After a 7-day truce, Israeli bombs are falling all over Gaza again. PM Netanyahu resumed the war on the strip last Friday after further negotiation efforts failed. In only two days, over 400 AI-chosen targets have been attacked, many in and around the largest city in southern Gaza: Khan Younis, where Palestinians were seeking refuge. During the week of the truce, Hamas released a total of 110 hostages while it is estimated that they still hold over 140 under their control. In exchange, Israel has freed 240 Palestinian prisoners, even though it has detained nearly the same number in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.



Hell on earth: according to Israel, more than 10.000 bombs and missiles have been used against the territory, which has left an unimaginable level of destruction and desperation among the Palestinians. UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths stressed that civilians have “nowhere safe to go and very little to survive on”. The lack of fuel, food, water, and medical supplies worsened the level of humanitarian emergency in the territory and the World Health Organization (WHO) warns harsh health conditions and the widespread untreated diseases in Gaza may cause even more deaths than the bombs.



Negotiation efforts: Israel left negotiations in Qatar, accusing Hamas of breaking truce agreements by refusing to release all women hostages. However, Hamas expressed that all offers to release other hostages had been refused by Netanyahu’s government. Moreover, Biden has been putting pressure on its ally to limit the civilian death toll and ease humanitarian suffering. At the time of writing, negotiations continue (with Qatar as a vital mediator) in hopes of achieving another ceasefire that may ease the suffering and allow for the release of the remaining hostages. At the same time, Doha is also hosting the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit this week, where the Gaza crisis will be on the forefront of discussions.





Media freedom under attack in Lebanon

By Pablo

The draft of a new media law is threatening Lebanon’s long history of press freedom, that has so far withstood its political instability. Through meetings behind closed doors, the Lebanese Parliament’s Administration and the Justice Committee are preparing the draft. According to human rights organizations, such as Amnesty International, the new media law will include a series of new prison sentences and crimes for insults and defamation, notably those to the “recognized religions”, which in the case of Lebanon includes up to 18 different confessions. This seems to represent an attempt to impose further cutbacks on the Lebanese political scene, already limited to a selected few. Propositions to change and amend the law have been already made, but none of them have been accepted so far.



Attacks by Israel in the southern border. While lawfare has become a common practice, the draft comes at a time when Lebaneses are yet again frightened about the Hezbollah-Israel clashes in the South. Attacks are being used by Lebanese politicians as a way to hold on to more power and pass legal texts while the attention of the Lebanese people is focused on their security. The situation has come then in a presidential power vacuum since October 2022. Last week, France’s special envoy for Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, urged Lebanese leaders to resolve the situation, but Lebanese stakeholders do not seem interested in dropping their requests. Not to say how this is gonna weaken Lebanon’s governance capacity and accountability further, with dangerous consequences for Lebanon’s media freedom.





Niger: Russia-in, EU-out?

By Laura

Last week, the Nigerien military junta announced the abrogation of a law that was aimed at countering human traffickers in the region. Embedded into the framework of cooperation with the EU, Niger's removal of a contentious migration law that penalised the illicit trafficking of migrants was only the starter. Much more on the menu? Indeed. The move is seen as a significant stride taken by Abdourahamane Tiani - the Nigerien military leader who seized power in July - to recast the relations with traditional Western allies. It comes thus as no surprise the decision to end the two EU missions in the country. Say goodbye to EUCAP Sahel Niger after 12 years and the freshest EUMPM Niger that was inaugurated in January.



Moscow takeover: if the enforcement of the migration law had far-reaching consequences on what was considered one of the safest routes to North Africa and Europe, Niamey’s move comes together with the first Russian visit to the country after the military coup in July. After expanding its ties to the coupist Sahel in the last three years, Moscow has now landed in Niger too! The visit was indeed aimed at discussing defence and military cooperation between the two countries in a florid outlook for Russian diplomacy. If the (un)expected death of Evgenij Prigožin - the well-known chief of the Russian PMC Wagner Group - had posed doubts and questions on the prospects of the Russian engagement in the Sahel, the EU forced withdrawal provides Moscow with wider room for manoeuvre.





Escalation in the Middle East? Smoke signs from Yemen
By Fatin 

Yemen paramilitary activity sets off alarms. Recent activity concerning the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen is making the international community fear the expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict into the rest of the Middle East. Since October 7^th, the rebel group has employed cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones against Israel and its allies.



Who is to blame? Israel and its allies have pointed fingers at Iran for these incidents, alleging its intent to influence resistance forces in the Middle East. The government of Yemenhas formally distanced itself from the activities of the rebel group, explicitly highlighting Iran's involvement in orchestrating these actions. Iran has denied its involvement. However, Houthi tactics evoke the ones of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - the already well-known Iranian paramilitary organisation responsible for defending the Islamic Republic from internal and external threats. As such, this raised concerns these attacks are an attempt to enhance the militia group's international standing. While it is unclear whether this military mobilization will have any further consequences in the region, it is key to keep an eye on violent developments in nearby areas.





SoutH2: Europe's new hydrogen pipeline
By Isabela

Unlikely alliance? Despite a short list of joint agreements and higher tensions in the past, Germany and Italy seem to be joining forces. Two weeks ago: Germany’s Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met to discuss future cooperation. Technology, environmental policy topped the meeting agenda. Also, international cooperation and security, as well as the European agenda, but it’s the SoutH2 Corridor that took the stage.

When things go South. If nobody is a stranger to the concerns about Europe’s energy autonomy that arose with the Ukrainian war, SoutH2 Corridor is not necessarily common knowledge. Partially conceived as a response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the new European project is a 3,300 km hydrogen pipelineconnecting North Africa, Italy, Austria, and Germany. The SoutH2 Corridor is expected to carry 10 million tons of hydrogen by 2030. Easy, right? To do this, the project has more than 40% of the RePowerEU import target at their disposal. It only remains to be seen what their geographical mediators - mainly Austria and Switzerland, but also the MENA countries, notably Tunisia - will have to say.



Now, a bit of culture...

In this section, we uncover some of the most listened and watched musicians, writers or YouTubers of the MENA or new publications, articles or books either from or on the region. If you have any suggestions, you’re always welcome to tell us via our email!

Busting 22 migration myths. Migration has become an all-purpose card, particularly among politicians. While some portray it as a crisis, others see it as a magical cure, but the truth is neither black nor white.



If that sounds interesting to you, then Hein de Haas has got you covered! How Migration Really Works: A Factful Guide to the Most Divisive Issue in Politics debunks 22 migration myths. With the prevalence of false narratives on migrants, including refugees, what is much needed is de Haas’ book, a masterpiece that delivers raw facts without sugar-coating. How Migration Really Works is intended for academics, students, and anyone who wants to understand the intricacies of an inevitable phenomenon that has always existed.



Save the Date! On December 14th, the Department for Migration and Globalisation at Donau-Universität Krems is hosting an online talk titled “European Border Externalisation in North Africa: Exploring the Gendered and Local Effects.”The event will feature migration researcher Ahlam Chemlali, whose expertise includes undocumented migration and European migration politics. For more information, click here, and don’t miss out on the opportunity to learn how border externalisation shapes gendered experiences.