The Atlantic Route Records a Surge in Irregular Crossings

By Alicia

A deadly voyage. Since the 2006 “Cayucos crisis”, the West African route has reconsolidated itself as a major pathway for migrants attempting to reach Europe. Departing from countries like Mauritania, Morocco, and Senegal, and aiming at the Canary Islands, the journey across the Atlantic is between 100 and 1,600 km. In 2024, the number of irregular arrivals to the islands reached a record high, accounting for 46,877 immigrants- an 18% increase from the previous year. However, the risk is extreme: According to the NGO Caminando Fronteras, at least 9,757 people died or disappeared following the route, making it one of the deadliest in the world.



As the new year starts, nothing seems to have changed. The first weeks of 2025 have continued to see a surge in people attempting to reach Spain through the Atlantic route. On January 16^th, a boat heading to the Canaries capsized after 13 days at sea, resulting in 50 out of the 86 people on board dying. The tragic event sparked widespread condemnation. As the president of the Canarian regional government pointed out on X, “The [Spanish] State and Europe must take action. The Atlantic cannot continue to be Africa’s cemetery. They cannot keep turning their backs on this humanitarian tragedy.” Some days later, the nightmare news continued: two boats bound for the islands were found in the Caribbean, carrying at least 20 dead bodies on board.



New migration partnerships on the horizon?/Externalizing migration- but until when? The increasing flows to the Canary Islands have occurred despite the overall 38% drop in irregular crossings into the EU. Many have drawn the connection: the Atlantic route has expanded as the other ones have been blocked through the EU’s agreements with third countries like Morocco, Turkey, and Tunisia. In the meantime, both Spain and the EU Commission have declared their aim to strengthen cooperation on migration with different Western African countries.





Saudi Arabia is weighing its options for its long awaited fifth generation fighters

By Michele

Saudi Arabia is the second-highest spender in arms imports in the world. The kingdom invests heavily to have a technological military edge in the region, historically buying from the US but with an increased interest in diversifying its suppliers in recent years. The Royal Saudi Air Force is the main recipient of this spending and, since the debut of the F-35 a decade ago, it set its eyes on the American fifth-generation jet fighter.



What is a fifth-generation jet fighter and why is it important? The term refers to an aircraft equipped with the latest military technologyof the 21^st century, which grants a significant competitive advantage over older models. In the Middle East, only Israel and Turkey can boast such an asset.



During the first Trump administration, the F-35 fell within Riyadh’s grasp, until Washington decided to attach the sale to concrete steps towards normalisation with Israel. However, Saudi Arabia was cautious and witnessed the UAE signing the Abraham Accords in 2020 and not receiving a single F-35 throughout Biden’s presidency. Although the new Trump administration is expected to be favourable towards Saudi Arabia again, Riyadh is aware that Washington will look to get normalisation with Israel back on track, using the F-35 as the carrot for the deal. In the backdrop of the disastrous War in Gaza, any step toward normalisation is unpalatable to the Saudis, who also learned from the UAE’s cautionary tale.



Therefore, Riyadh started looking elsewhere and found a possible match: The Turkish KAAN, which premiered in 2024, although it’s not the most sought-after model it would come with no strings attached, unlike its Western counterparts. Moreover, the project is on track to be sold by 2028, aligning with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, and it would reinforce Riyadh’s warming ties with Ankara.



Additionally, Saudi Arabia is bidding to join the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), a joint project by the UK, Italy, and Japan for the forward-looking development of a sixth-generation fighter. This option is particularly enticing to Riyadh if it can manage to localise part of the production, as increasing autonomy in the defence sector is a stated goal of Vision 2030. For now, only Japan’s veto is withholding Saudi Arabiafrom joining, but talks are ongoing between all parties.



Whether Riyadh will go through with the KAAN purchase or continue waiting for better opportunities or, possibly, another shot at the F-35, these developments showcase Saudi Arabia’s growing interest in diversifying its partnerships, even in domains that used to be exclusive to the US.





The EU and Jordan Sign a Strategic Partnership

By Hafssa

Making Abdullah II happy. Four days after US President Trump announced a temporary suspension of foreign aid, the EU and Jordan signed a three-billion Euro partnership covering 2025-2027. The so-called Strategic and Comprehensive Partnership includes 640 million in grants, one billion in financial assistance, and 1.4 billion in investments. But why does Jordan need so much money? According to Dubravka Šuica, the EU Commissioner for the Mediterranean, the partnership aims to boost Jordan’s economy while boosting security cooperation between Amman and Brussels. Fair enough…



Different perspectives: For regime supporters who prefer to ignore the country’s budget deficit, the partnership is seen as a display of strength – no one can twist the arm of ‘His Majesty,’ some say on social media platforms. On the other hand, critics argue that the king was begging for European Euros, which isn’t something to boast about. Regardless of where public opinion lies, Jordan remains heavily dependent on foreign assistance, which limits its ability to ripost when things get tough with donors.



Brussels is wiser. King Abdullah II’s visit to Brussels comes amid Trump’s hawkish statements on Gaza, in particular the one about Jordan and Egypt taking in Palestinian refugees. For Amman, such a scenario is hors de question because Jordan is the world’s second-highest refugee-hosting country, and the Hashemites refuse a solution that involves Jordan. That is not to say that Jordanian-American relations will deteriorate, but the unpredictability of Washington incites Amman to shake hands with Brussels, which is far more reliable. Plus, the New Pact for the Mediterranean, led by the newly-founded DG MENA – the Directorate-General for the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf – signals a shift in EU Mediterranean policy. How good is that?