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Hello ESTers, how have you been?



Welcome back! We hope you had a restful summer break and are ready to face the upcoming term. As always, this is the Observatory, and here is InsideMENA, the EST’s bimonthly newsletter that uncovers the latest news from the Middle East and North Africa touching upon the EU’s interests and beyond, as well as a light dose of culture you can find at the end.



New year, old rules! Twice a month, every month, InsideMENA will knock on your door every other Friday with the weekend just around the corner.

And now, without further ado, let’s dive right InsideMENA!



PS: If you are reading this on the website, don’t forget to subscribe to InsideMENA to directly receive it in your email every fortnight!



Edited by Blanca González Martínez, Hafssa Fakher Elabiari, and Luca Saviolo



Note that the information, views and opinions set out in the newsletter are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion or position of the editors, of the European Student ThinkTank, and of their affiliated-entities or institutions.





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Lebanon: Gaza 2.0? Israel’s New Target, Same Strategy.

By Andrea

Note: Due to the evolving nature of the situation, please note that the news is current at the time of writing (25 September). This piece of news is not intended to show any position of the Observatory and its members who express their solidarity to all the people who are suffering under the noise of bombs and rockets.



Our worst fears are turning into reality. This Monday, Israel started targeting Lebanon with hundreds of air strikes. It quickly became the deadliest day of violence since Israel and Hezbollah went to war back in 2006. How long the cumulative deterrence strategy between Israel and Lebanon could last and avoid the regionalisation of the conflict? But let’s be clear: fears of escalation are growing as Israel multiplies its signals of a possible ground invasion.



But let’s dive into the Gazification of Lebanon. Israel claims to be targeting Hezbollah’s arsenal, with which the group has already sent hundreds of missiles and rockets toward Israeli territory since October 7th, most of them intercepted by the Iron Dome. Once again, as we’ve seen in the war on Gaza, Israel is asking civilians to flee the regions “used by terrorists”. So far, they have hit the South and Eastern regions of the country, as well as the capital, Beirut. The Lebanese Health Ministry counts almost 500 victims, including 50 children. As of Tuesday, tens of thousands of Lebanese citizens are fleeing the Southof the country.



This aggression comes after the explosion of electronic devices all around the country. On September 17th, thousands of pagers, mostly used by Hezbollah’s members, exploded causing around 12 deaths and more than 2000 injured. The next day, walkie-talkies and other devices went off as well causing another wave of panic. While these attacks are believed to be carried out by Israel, there are still many questions surrounding such a sophisticated attack.



How is the international community responding? The UN Secretary-Generalshowed his concern regarding the “escalating situation” in the region and Josep Borell, the EU foreign policy chief, warned “we are almost in a full-fledged war” and called for de-escalation at the UN General Assemblyon September 22nd. Hezbollah’s ally, Iran, accused Israel of trying to bait it into a conflict with “irreversible consequences”. The US, which has given Israel billions of dollars in weapons, is now sending troops to help evacuate its citizens from the region.



No rest in Gaza Meanwhile. Israeli attacks on Gaza remain relentless. 12 Palestinians have been killed in the last 24 hours and negotiations keep proving useless. Gaza’s health ministry published last week the list of 34,344 Palestinians killed by Israeli attacks in the territory. The publication shows the names, ages, gender, and IDs of what is believed to be only 80%of the total casualties since October 7th.

The full story of Palestinian losses, however, cannot be seen with just the official death toll. While thousands are still buried under the rubble, many others are dying of the indirect effects of war: hunger, lack of medication and shelter, the spread of diseases, and the collapse of the healthcare system.



In the latest developments, the IDF raided the Al Jazeera offices in the city of Ramallah, West Bank. The news broadcaster’s equipment was confiscated and their activity shut down for 45 days. An intelligence assessment conducted by Israel claimed that the news office was being used to “incite terror” and “support terrorist activities”. The Foreign Press Association showed its concern about the lack of press freedom. Al Jazeera, one of the only broadcaster media present in the field, condemned its closure and complained about what they named “unfounded allegations”.



Maghreb in the Spotlight between Migrants and Elections

By Laura

Spain's migration crisis has intensified in the last weeks, with over 31,000 irregular migrants arriving in the first 6 months of 2024, a 66% increase compared to 2023. The Canary Islands, Ceuta, and Melilla are overwhelmed, particularly with arrivals from sub-saharan and North African migrants. This surge reflects growing instability in sub-Saharan regions, such as the Sahel or the political crisis in Senegal, pushing more people to undertake perilous journeys.



In the internal Spanish context, the migration crisis has sparked political confrontation, as the current situation mirrors the 2006 "cayuco crisis". The main opposition party urges the government to take more restrictive measures at the borders, while the Spainish's government is actively seeking to reform the law on foreign nationals. The crisis has triggered concern among the Spanish population, which already ranks immigration as the main problem in the country.



Guarding European borders. Two weeks ago, the Moroccan authorities intercepted a massive influx of migrants attempting to enter Ceuta via Fnideq. This incident coincides with the deadly floods in the south east, uncovering Morocco’s dirty laundry: poor infrastructure, unemployment, misery, and police violence. In August, the authorities aborted more than 14,600 crossings to Ceuta and Melilla… Not something to be proud of.



What did you expect? Algeria’s President Abdelmadjid Tebboune secured a second term after amassing 84.3% of the votes. The incumbent had initially won 94%, but the Constitutional Court adjusted the results due errors in the counting of votes (or to eliminate suspicion). Still, this landslide victory, coupled with the low voter turnout, raises eyebrows on the legitimacy of the political process. But that’s neither surprising nor new. In Algeria, presidential elections follow the rules of the military. If the army chief of staff Saïd Chengriha and his buddies say the sky is green, then it’s green!



Tunisia follows suit. On October 6th, Tunisia is holding presidential elections in a tense political climate: protests, arbitrary arrests and rushed trials. Kais Saied does not intend to leave the Carthage Palace any time soon, so he came up with the perfect recipe: fabricate charges against opponents and throw them in prisons as quickly as possible. In total, Tunisia’s (independent) Election Authority – ISIE – rejected three candidates and approved three: Zouhair Maghzaoui, Ayachi Zammel, and… Saied. Ironically, Zammel was jailed for 20 months for allegedly falsifying popular endorsements. Ever since the July 25th coup in 2021, Saied gained an iron grip over the country’s institutions, raising fears over the country’s return to the Ben Ali years.





Iran-Russia Relations: A Growing Strategic Alliance 
By Fatin

Russo-Iranian cooperation has rapidly expanded, with the two countries forging closer ties than ever, as shown by the upcoming Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement, set to be signed soon, ahead of the BRICS summit. This agreement will strengthen collaboration across various sectors, including trade, economy, and technology, but will particularly focus on enhancing security cooperation between the two countries.



A shared strategic vision: Both countries share similar challenges, such as facing Western sanctions that have shaped much of their international strategies. The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership will be one of the most crucial documents governing Russian-Iranian relations in the coming years. Security remains central to their cooperation, particularly considering Russia's ongoing conflict in Ukraine and Iran's challenging role in the Middle East.



Security vs Diplomacy. Iran’s new President, Pezeshkian, faces a difficult situation: strengthening ties with Russia, particularly in the military sector, will satisfy the conservative factions in Tehran’s leadership. But aligning more closely with Moscow could undermine Pezeshkian’s possibility of re-establishing dialogue with the West in the long-term. We would not want to be in his shoes!





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See you in two weeks, inshallah!

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