Gaza Updates: Busy week for Netanyahu

By Andrea

Panic! at the cabinet. The week has been intense for the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, after he decided to dissolve his war cabinet. This six-member body reached its end after Benny Gantz, the most centrist in the lot, decided to quit the emergency government. Before this, several far-right partners such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir had demanded the creation of a new cabinet: the nationalist-religious However, it seems that Netanyahu has turned them down and aims to consult about the war on Gaza only with a small group of ministers, including Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, who had been in the war cabinet. Netanyahu has not been able to enjoy peace and calm at home either, since Israeli protesters marched towards his house demanding immediate elections and the release of the hostages still being held in Gaza.



An IDF-Israeli government divorce? A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claimed that these political issues would not impact the chain of command. Nonetheless, extra tensions surfaced within the Israeli government, when the IDF chose to introduce daytime "tactical pauses in military activity" near Rafah to facilitate humanitarian aid deliveries. Netanyahu criticised the unilateral initiative, while the military claimed to be following political orders which caused confusion about what was happening in the field. The UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) reported that fighting has not decreased in Rafah and no real changes have yet been noticed. Additionally,17 Palestinians were killed on June 18th by a double Israeli strike released onto the Nuseirat refugee camp. Despite the civilian death toll, Washington continues to supply Israel with arms, and even amidst clear political discontent, Prime Minister Netanyahu shows no signs of easing the offensive in Gaza.





Toward Iran’s Presidential Elections: The Six Final Candidates
By Michele

As Iran braces for its early presidential elections scheduled for June 28, the final list of the 6 candidates was published on June 9. Tough but quick: the candidates have been vetted and then passed through the strict screening of the Guardian Council - the Islamic Republic’s body in charge of overseeing the respect of the Iranian constitution and that has always played a key role in shaping election results even before the ballots. Six final candidates in total! Mohammed Ghalibaf and Saeed Jalili, two hardline conservatives close to Khamenei, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi and Mostafa Pourmohammadi, also conservatives, the current mayor of Teheran Alireza Zakani, as well as Masoud Pezeshkian, the only reformist candidate who survived the Guardian Council fit-check.



Two notable exclusions are former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani, whose potential for election attracted international interest. It’s also important to notice that much of the reformist electorate is expected to boycott the vote, hampering Pezeshkian’s odds of winning despite being the sole reformist candidate. The aim is clear: delegitimizing elections and the regime.

Atomic attention. Jalili and Ghalibaf are thus the two frontrunners and, undoubtedly, the Supreme Leader’s favourites but, while the latter is a more moderate and technocratic figure, the possibility of Jalili being elected raises huge international concerns. In fact, as the former chief negotiator in the nuclear talks, Jalili’s zealousness in defending and advancing Iran’s nuclear program is well known in the West.



It's important to underscore that a regime akin to Raisi’s line is likely to be guaranteed. Despite being the second highest institutional figure in Iran, the president is strictly bound to the Supreme Leader’s decisions on both domestic and foreign policymaking. Therefore, little change should be expected in the short term, but their importance lies in the fact that, due to the Supreme Leader’s old age, the new leadership is the one that will likely oversee Khamenei’s succession.





Cash Infusion or Cautionary Tale? EIB Pledges 540 Million Euros to Tunisia

By Valentina

At the Tunisia Investment Forum 2024, the European Investment Bank (EIB) announced 540 million euros in support for Tunisia. This loan promises to shower Tunisia with funds destined for projects of high social and economic impact. The EIB has earmarked 170 million euros for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Tunisia. These funds aim to support Tunisia's economic backbone, but one wonders how much local entrepreneurs will truly benefit and how the flow of money will be monitored. A hefty 210 million euros is allocated for modernising the road axis between Sfax and Kasserine. This might sound like a straightforward infrastructure upgrade, but given the track record of such projects, don't be surprised if a major Western contractor ends up leading the work. The EIB is also throwing 45 million euros at the ELMED project – a European project for electric interconnection between Tunisia and Italy. This project promises to light up Tunisia (literally and figuratively), although sceptics might wonder if the primary beneficiaries will be European and Tunisian energy giants (such as Terna and Steg) rather than the Tunisian populace.



Those are strings, Pinocchio. Tunisia's President Kais Saied, despite reopened negotiations,remains skeptical about signing an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), due to the dreaded "foreign interference" that comes with those pesky structural adjustment programs. You know the drill: restrictive fiscal policies, public spending cuts, and tax hikes that stabilise the macroeconomy while worsening socio-economic conditions for the average citizen. Interestingly, President Saied seems more than happy to accept the EIB's money, possibly because it comes with fewer strings attached…right?



Check the expiry date. In the grand scheme of the European Neighbourhood Policy, the EIB, IMF, and World Bank are supposed to work together to maintain economic stability in Europe’s neighbouring regions. Could the EIB eventually cave to pressure and align with IMF policies, nudging Tunisia towards those dreaded structural adjustments? Only time will tell. Finally, while the EIB professes a noble interest in Tunisia’s social and economic development, one can't help but question: will these loans and grants genuinely benefit Tunisian SMEs, local actors, and public institutions, or will they end up lining the pockets of Western interests in Tunisia?





Bahrain Looks to Normalise Relations with Iran – Through Russia.

By Michele

During his visit to Moscow on May 23, Bahrain’s king Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa formally expressed the will to normalise relations with Iran and asked Russia to act as a mediator. The monarch declared that Bahrain has no problems with Iran, a statement Teheran reciprocated, as direct talks between the countries have already started.



Historically, Bahrain felt deeply threatened by Iran, since it is a Shia-majority country ruled by a Sunni monarchy. Indeed, Iran has supported Bahraini Shia dissidents since 1979 and made territorial claims to the small country. Tensions peaked during the Arab Spring, as Shia-led protests threatened the regime’s survival. As a result, Bahrain is the last Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)country that has not normalised relations with Iran yet. Lately, with Bahrain’s Foreign Minister even participating in Raisi’s funeral last month, things seem to have changed. This shift is not surprising, as it comes in the context of the wider de-escalation process between the two shores of the Persian Gulf, during which the UAE and Saudi Arabia already repaired ties with Iran in 2022 and 2023 respectively. Bahraini foreign policy has always followed Riyadh’s and Abu Dhabi’s decision-making, so normalisation may be motivated by other factors than a simple “the past is in the past”.



Where’s Uncle Sam? Interestingly, the Kingdom chose Russia to mediate negotiations, echoing Saudi Arabia’s choice to have China sponsor its agreement with Iran last year. These events showcase the increasing multipolarity in the Gulf and the growing weight of global powers who are stepping in to fill the gap left by US retrenchment from the region.





Now, a bit of culture...

In this section, we uncover some of the most listened and watched musicians, writers or YouTubers of the MENA or new publications, articles or books either from or on the region. If you have any suggestions, you’re always welcome to tell us via our email!



What is home? For many of us, this question comes with an easy answer; home is a space where one lives, usually as part of a family. However, for people who don’t get to enjoy the privilege of safety, defining what home is brings about a rollercoaster of emotions. The very notion of ‘home’ is associated with leaving, losing, searching and finding. In The Home I Worked to Make: Voices from the New Syrian Diaspora, Wendy Pearlman speaks with the voice of Syrians who managed to find home and those who have not. She dives into emotions to convey one important message: human experiences may differ, but don’t, and one is Qaher (or قهر in Arabic). Pearlman, who is a Professor of Political Science at Northwestern University, (US) elegantly puts on her writer’s hat to share groundbreaking findings on human agency in extraordinary settings. The Home I Worked to Make is a must-read for academics, students, and anyone who is interested in the intersection between conflict and refugee studies.