Recent Developments in Gaza: Navigating Crisis

By Andrea

Vanishing hope: In our latest newsletter, we hoped a ceasefire was imminent. Instead, we are still shocked by terrifying pictures from Gaza every day. The most recent tragedy has been named the “flour massacre”, Israeli soldiers targeted a group of Palestinians who gathered to collect flour in Gaza on February 29th. International agencies denounced the attack that ended the lives of 112 civilians. The episode sheds light on the starvation crisis and the challenges of delivering humanitarian aid to the besieged Strip.



A maritime corridor. The EU, together with Cyprus, the US, the UAE, and the UK, committed to building a maritime corridor to facilitate Gazans’ access to aid. However, the proposal was not well received in several circles, including the UN, which stated that the corridor cannot replace land humanitarian assistance. For many others, the port is just an attempt to delay the implementation of a ceasefire. Regardless of where the truth lies, what is certain is that this initiative shows that Israel is the one that sets the rules.



Keep your spirits high. Mediators assure that efforts to restart negotiations are strong: Egypt is in contact with both Israel and Hamas to maintain peace talks in Cairo in the hopes of securing a truce during Ramadan. On a more positive note, Sweden and Canada will resume funding to the UNRWA, the UN humanitarian mission in Palestine. The decision comes after a temporary pause in funding by 16 countries, following Israel’s claims that some UNRWA employees had been involved in the October 7^th attacks. Moreover, the European Commission decided to release €50 mln in UNRWA funding.





Amid Iran’s Election Fallout, Women Don’t Get to Celebrate
By Andrea

Pointless elections?Iranians headed to polling stations on March 1^st to elect representatives for both the Parliament (Majlis) and the Assembly of Experts. The elections recorded a new historic low in participation, with a 41% voter turnout. Conservatives dominated the elections after the disqualification of hundreds of candidates, amongst them former President Hassan Rouhani. So what? Realistically, both chambers are perceived as having little power over the nation’s policies. However, the Assembly of Experts may play a relevant role in the succession of the Supreme Leader, who is now 84 years old.



On a side note.Two young women were arrested for dancing in public in Tehran this week. After the recent International Women’s Day celebration, this news serves as an unfortunate reminder that women in Iran remain oppressed and discriminated against. This same week, the UN filed a report accusing Iran of committing crimes against humanity during the protests that followed Mahsa Amini’s death in 2022. The government’s violence towards the protesters of the “Women, Life, Freedom” movement entailed severe human rights’ violations under international law. Looking at the broader picture, a reading of this situation is that both the elections and the arbitrary detentions depict the ongoing tensions between the government and the citizens.





Egypt’s Sisi is Tackling Debt Like a Pro: Part II

By Pablo

The never ending story of Egypt’s debt restructuring. In the last newsletter, we told you about a big Emirati investment project, Ras Al-Hikma (a combination of energy infrastructure and a resort destination), that would mean an injection of $35 bln into Egypt’s collapsing economy, and some other funds in deposits to come, hoping to raise a total of $150 bln. This week, Egypt managed to secure another $8 bln with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while the international organisation gave hopes for the recovery of the Egyptian pound, and an additional $1.2 bln in environmental sustainability. The Egyptian headache of foreign currency shortages may be alleviating, but at the price of letting go of control and devaluing its own currency to 50 Egyptian pounds to the dollar (compared to 30.85 pounds as it was before).



How did Egypt get here?President Sisi has been investing in mega projects for the construction of a new Cairo, while telling his citizens to bear with the poor purchasing power until these projects generate new jobs (who knows when). Moreover, the country has incurred dwindling revenues in the Suez Canal amid the Gaza war and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.



Future prospects for Egypt. Things could turn many ways: Egypt’s economy will continue to suffer as long as resources are misallocated and the country is stuck in a loop of dependence on remittances. Certainly, Egypt has a lot of potential, especially in its northern shores (desalination plants, solar plants, and tremendous human resources, just to name a few) Yet, the bitter reality is that the most populous Arab country is relying on ‘easy money’ while millions of Egyptians try to keep up with climbing inflation.





Algeria Hosts Gas Exporting Countries Forum Summit
By Laura

Gas buddies come together. Algeria hosted the seventh edition of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), a key energy summit where leaders convene to discuss energy cooperation. This year, the three-day summit sought to reach a consensus roadmap between all gas sector players on how to stabilise the market. At a time of increasing gas demand but significant sectoral challenges, Algeria validates its leading position by hosting this event, as the CEO of Sonatrach, Rachid Hachichi, pointed out.



Algeria in the spotlight. The eruption of the war in Ukraine disrupted Europe’s energy supply, prompting European states to seek alternatives. Many eyes turned to oil-giant Algeria, and they were not let down. Indeed, Algeria is capitalising on its energy edge and geographical position to position itself as a credible supplier of gas.In case you didn’t know, two-thirds of Algeria’s landmass remains unexplored!



Phenomenal odds for gas traders The summit took place amid predictions that the global gas demand will rise in the fall of 2024 and winter of 2025 due to lower temperatures. Let’s see how Algeria will seize this opportunity!





Zelensky’s visit is Erdoğan’s Moment to Shine
By Hafssa

Peekaboo. Less than a year after his last visit to Türkiye, Zelensky is yet again at the Dolmabahçe Bosphorus palace. Unlike the first visit, which was timely announced, this one was unexpected, quick, and late. Erdoğan met his Ukrainian counterpart for an hour around 7 p.m on March 8th. Was the President’s daytime agenda full (or meşgul, as Turks say)? Despite the late hour, the meeting seems to have been fruitful for both parties: Kiev filled its arsenal and Ankara, its pockets.



Shipyard visit in Erdogan’s absence?! Just a few dozen miles from the palace lies the Tuzla shipyard, where a batch of corvettes intended for the Ukrainian Navy are under construction. Zelensky inspected the warships in presence of defence representatives, but Erdoğan was not in sight – he was probably too busy with late night meetings. We may give him the benefit of the doubt and say that he might, in the future, attend the inauguration ceremony the way he did in 2022 with Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif.



Let the mediation game begin. Erdoğan offered to host a Kiev-Moscow peace summit to end the war. But let’s be real: starting wars is nothing like ending them. True, Ankara has been a credible mediator, especially after its success in striking the Black Sea grain deal under the UN umbrella. Yet, the path ahead is complex because neither Türkiye nor Ukraine or fellow NATO allies would want an elusive peace that echoes the fate of Crimea. That said, if Ankara mediates at least the security of ships for both parties, that will be a major breakthrough after the Grain Initiative!



Now, a bit of culture...

in this section, we uncover some of the most listened and watched musicians, writers or YouTubers of the MENA or new publications, articles or books either from or on the region. If you have any suggestions, you’re always welcome to tell us via our email!



Tolerating the Illicit. Did you know that instability is not a prerequisite to smuggling in North Africa? Max Gallien’s book, Smugglers and States: Negotiating the Maghreb at Its Margins, dissects the dynamics of smuggling in Morocco and Tunisia, trying to reveal the invisible. The book delves into states’ toleration of illicit income-generating activities around the borders with Algeria, Libya, and Spain to draw a new picture of state-citizens relations in North Africa. Smugglers and States is relevant for academics, students, and anyone who is curious about a phenomenon that supports thousands of households.



Retrospection. From the Maghreb, let’s move to Iran, where parliamentary elections are around the corner. What can we expect? How is Tehran navigating the elections amid growing opposition, civil disobedience and a sluggish economy? Will history repeat itself? If you are looking for a piece to satisfy your curiosity, the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) got you covered! Iran’s Political Crossroads is a comprehensive dossier that X-rays Iran’s domestic scene from head to toe.



A Week Later: On March 1st, Iran had its first elections since the eruption of the protest movement in 2022. The voter turnout, estimated at 41%, is the lowest ever recorded under the Islamic Republic, but the ruling elite deemed the participation impressive (see, it’s good to keep your expectations low). Fatin Boualite and Andrea Aznar Macià from the Observatory take you inside Iran’s institutional corridors to understand the dynamics of domestic elections.