The far-fetched withdrawal of Tripoli’s armed groups

By Hafssa

Can you believe it? After lingering negotiations and a string of deadly attacks, Tripoli’s main armed groups have finally agreed to withdraw from the capital in the coming weeks. Acknowledging the plan’s complexity, Interior Minister Emad Trabelsi stated that the government will only rely on militias under extraordinary circumstances, and that their place will remain at their headquarters. But, what falls as an ‘extraordinary situation’ when Libya’s security climate remains fragile? And isn’t it ironic that the headquarters are located in Tripoli?!



Dream big but expect disappointment. The groups in question have been operating since the fall of Qaddafi in 2011. Libya’s security void and abundant oil wealth allowed many militias to acquire tremendous political leverage, overshadowing the state and building an impregnable fortress. So, should we take the withdrawal news at face value? The short answer is no. Militias are key political stakeholders in the UN-recognized Government of National Unity (GNU), and to believe that armed groups will easily cede the power they amassed over the past decade is like believing that pigs can fly.



Who needs peace, really? The prevalence of militias offers a glimpse into Libya’s uncertain trajectory towards peace. Despite significant progress, the country is still torn between two governments, each vying for power at the expense of popular demands… And don’t forget the broader picture. External actors, including the UAE and Türkiye, capitalise on Libya’s fragile situation to do business, sell weapons; in short, to divide and rule. Ultimately, chaos begets opportunities for some and disasters for others.





Egypt’s Sisi is tackling debt like a pro
By Hafssa

Out of the blue. Egypt and the UAE signed an agreement that grants the Emirati ADQ consortium development rights in Egypt’s coastal town of Ras el-Hekma. The UAE is set to inject a colossal $35 bn into Egypt’s fledgling economy and waive $11 bn of Emirati deposits, raising hopes that the ever-growing debt of the Central Bank will finally decrease. Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly stated that the project is set to attract $150 bn worth of investment. That’s certainly a relief… but for whom?!



Please give me more dollars. Some pundits suggest that this project might not see light, as it resembles a panoply of projects signed under the banner of ‘attracting foreign investment.' But let’s be real; this megaproject will bolster Egypt’s attractiveness to foreign investment, a much needed relief for soaring inflation and swollen deficit. Needless to say that it will also strengthen Cairo’s position vis-à-vis the International Monetary Fund (IMF), opening the room for reckless borrowing and sustaining the vicious cycle of debt.



Selling land to heal currency reserves. It is not the first time for foreign investors to acquire Egyptian land. In 2022, Cairo transferred control over Sanafir and Tiran to Saudi Arabia. The two islands are located in the Red Sea, and they had been under Saudi control until 1950. Are we done? No, because it has been reported that Egypt’s next move might be offering the land of Ras al-Gamila (near Sharm El-Sheikh) to Saudi Arabia. That said, Sisi’s critics ask: where is this going? Why ask for help when local investors have the priority over momentous projects? And does Egypt really need multi-billion projects when its lower classes struggle to make ends meet?





Red Sea Crisis: Brussels Is There But!

By Fatin

All hands on deck: You may have heard about EUNAVFOR ASPIDES, the EU’s new joint military maritime security operation to protect navigation in the Red Sea. The Area of Operation covers the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Strait of Hormuz, as well as international waters in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. With this operation, EU foreign ministers aim to deter Houthi attacks on merchant vessels and prevent escalation in the region.



We come in peace! The operation will maintain a defensive stance and cooperate alongside the US Operation Prosperity Guardian. EUNAVFOR ASPIDES focuses exclusively on protecting vessels. This secures the EU to differentiate and separate itself from the US and UK, whose activities also imply strikes on Houthi land targets.



The Red Sea is currently experiencing its fourth escalation phase, according to the analysis provided by the global crisis mapping organisation Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED). This phase involves an ongoing cycle of retaliation between the Houthis and the Western coalition, with neither party demonstrating a readiness to de-escalate.





Fighting like siblings? France and Morocco
By Blanca

Bumping heads. You may remember scattered headlines in the past few months revealing animosity between France and Morocco. Maybe it was Morocco’s refusal to accept French aid in the aftermath of the earthquake in September 2023, or Macron’s increasing support for Algeria. It is clear that recently, Paris-Rabat relations, described by Le Monde as “once an excellent model of post-colonial complicity” (whatever that means!) have become sour. Most of these tensions come from the burning topic of the Western Sahara, since France has not yet recognised Moroccan sovereignty over the territory. But disagreements don’t stop there: the EU (and by extension, France) has taken issue with Morocco’s poor human rights record, and more recently, farmers’ protests in the Hexagone have pointed accusing fingers to their Moroccan counterparts (remember our tomato infographic from last time?).



Reluctant rapprochement. Surprisingly, in the past week we have seen active efforts from France to reconcile with the North African state. First, Brigitte Macron hosted the sisters of king Mohammed VI at the Élysée. Second, Morocco received the visit of French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné, who reiterated French support of Morocco’s 2007 autonomy plan, showing that Paris is ready to start a new chapter. But who will write it?





Now, a bit of culture...

In this section, we uncover some of the most listened and watched musicians, writers or YouTubers of the MENA or new publications, articles or books either from or on the region. If you have any suggestions, you’re always welcome to tell us via our email!



Delving into crisis management. How does crisis management shape the experiences of forcibly displaced people in Lebanon? What does the politics of crisis-making entail? Estella Carpi’s book, The Politics of Crisis-Making: Forced Displacement and Cultures of Assistance in Lebanon, tackles those questions. Carpi depicts the complex relationship between political actors, humanitarians, and the displaced people in Lebanon. Interestingly, Carpi’s work covers two distinct periods in Lebanon’s history: the displacement of the Lebanese to Beirut’s suburbs (Dahiye) amid the 2006 war, and the arrival of Syrian asylum seekers to Akkar in 2011. The Politics of Crisis-Makingis relevant for policymakers, academics, students, and anyone who would like to understand how the politics of crisis-making unfolds.



Syria’s forgotten war. Let’s leave Lebanon and move to neighbouring Syria, where the prospects of peace have been evaporating. Since the beginning of the Gaza war, Syria has also been the theatre of Israeli attacks, reviving interest in its forgotten war. If you are curious to learn about the trajectory of the Syrian war and the role of external actors, we’ve got you covered! On March 7th, London School of Economics is hosting a panel to answer some tough questions. Register and set a reminder so you don’t miss out on the opportunity to learn from leading experts!





DON’T MISS OUT: Good things come in threes! While you’re reading, Iranians are going to the polls to elect representatives of the Majlis – the national parliament – and the Assembly of Experts – a hybrid body consisting of 88 directly elected clerics which follow the religious doctrine of the Velayat-e Faqih.



Curious to know more? Keep an eye out as we ara preparing an article on the Iranian elections. What this electoral round means for the country amidst economic and social challenges, and the spark of regional tensions? What’s the path ahead for Iran? And for Iranians? Stay tuned to discover the answers you’ve been searching for!