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16 February 2024

News 🤝🇪🇺🌍

Hello ESTers, how have you been?



Here is the Observatory, and this is InsideMENA, the EST’s bimonthly newsletter that uncovers the latest facts and events from the Middle East and North Africa touching upon the EU’s interests and beyond.



If you’ve missed the last issue of February, catch up with it here and check out our early February insights! 



This week felt longer than usual, innit? With many developments in the MENA region hitting the headlines (not everything was the Super Bowl!), it’s time to relax and update ourselves on what has been going on.



Without further ado, let's dive into the latest news from the region!



Ps. If you are reading this on the website, don’t forget to subscribe to InsideMENA to directly receive it in your email every fortnight!





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Farmers’ Week: Where Do Moroccan Tomatoes Go?


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Source: WITS, EST elaboration



Misplaced Views: Farmer Protests and North Africa

By Pablo

Disloyal competition or just a new scapegoat? Last week, farmer protests in France and other European countries blamed not only Brussels, but also North African exporters of food products for making competition impossible to keep up with. But this isn’t necessarily new: Spain made its discontent heard in the 1980s with the expansion of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Now, all fingers point to North Africa, and especially to Morocco, whose fruit exports, particularly tomatoes (yes, tomato is a fruit) and carrots, are becoming popular in Europe.



You are not enough. Indeed, stricter regulations and higher costs of labour are suffocating national products, while the 2012 trade agreement between Rabat and Brussels gave free access (kind of, to be honest) to Moroccan products21. To be precise, Moroccan exports slowly started to arrive to the European markets as early as the Association Agreement was signed in 2000. But more than 20 years later, the agreement has brought mixed results. While Moroccan products have gained weight in the EU’s imports, Morocco is slowly “detaching” from Brussels. The reason is simple: you’re not enough! In more polite words, the EU does not have much to offer, except for a market share, whereas Europe has benefitted from lower prices.



Is Morocco ready to “eat” the European fruit markets? Moroccan exports to the EU for fruits and vegetables are definitely rising. Tomatoes alone have grown by 40% in the last 5 years. However, European farmers should not be too worried about it. Water scarcity - which is one of Morocco’s major problems - is already there and ready to limit Morocco’s production capacity. And it doesn’t end there: while Morocco's “Green Plan” (now a “Green Generation 2020-2030”) prioritises the export of vegetables, domestic voices are increasingly asking for a reorientation towards the internal market. This adds to the growing inflation, and a similar story comes from Egypt. Also a big exporter to the EU, experts warned that lowering the prices to counter inflation’s negative effects on trade revenues leads to an impoverishment in the long run. If we look at the big picture then, Morocco and Egypt have much more to lose than European farmers.

Red Sea Struggles and the EU Naval Mission

By Andrea

Is war knocking on the door? It is no news that Houthi rebels have kept all global trade at a breaking point since they started conducting numerous attacks on trade vessels in the Red Sea in response to the war on Gaza. Don’t forget that this trading route carries around 12% of the total global trade and many shipping companies have already been forced to seek longer itineraries that raise transportation costs. Moreover, some European factories have seen their production being forcibly halted for an unknown period of time. Western countries worry that inflation rates may increase and cause lasting damage to their economies, because of course that’s what we should be worried about…



So, what’s the EU’s answer? The EU’s foreign policy chief recently announced the establishment of an EU Naval Mission to protect commercial vessels from the Iran-backed Houthi rebel strikes. This plan has been described as “purely defensive”, since it will not include any offensive measure. This way, the EU is trying to distance itself from the American-British Operation Prosperity Guardian, which has been targeting several Houthi locations in Yemen’s territory. So, who’s in? So far, the European countries involved and ready for the mission are Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, and Greece. Not so fast, though! The EU Naval Mission still has to be given the final green light, which will probably occur during next week’s FAC meeting – the Council configuration which brings together the ministers of foreign affairs of EU MSs once a month.





Gaza Crisis: All Eyes on Rafah
By Andrea

During the last months, Palestinians have been forced to flee their homes towards this southern region of Gaza. 1.4 million Palestinians are now in Rafah closely looking at the Egyptian border as Israel has started to attack the region which already suffered from severe shortages and desperate conditions. Egypt has mobilized 40 tanks and military personnel towards its border to prevent any potential spillover from Israel’s attack. Global fears escalated amid Israel’s planssince evidence gathered by organizations, like Amnesty International, demonstrates the IDF is violating international humanitarian law and committing indiscriminate crimes of war. As of writing, the total death toll has already surpassed 28.000.



Ceasefire on the horizon? Last week, the Israeli PM rejected Hamas’ ceasefire proposal suggesting a 135-day pause to release the remaining hostages and allow for the increase of vital aid into Gaza. Netanyahu opposed the offer by saying that a “total victory” in Gaza is possiblewithin months. Therefore, the hopes of the people of Gaza are now focused on the peace talks taking place in Cairo with senior officials from the US, Egypt, Israel, and Qatar. President Joe Biden has also stated his concern about the assault on Rafah and expressed he is pushing for a 6-week pause that will allow for a permanent ceasefire.





EU Quasi-Hidden Migration Strategy in Mauritania

By Laura

Last Thursday, Ursula von der Leyen and Pedro Sánchez, the recently re-elected Spanish PM, flew together to Nouakchott, Mauritania, to strengthen cooperation with one of the last - if not the last - 'allies' in the Sahel. What was on the agenda? Well, there was no shortage of investment in renewables and infrastructure, not least in view of the fact that the EU has pledged 150 billion euros by 2027 through the Global Gateway to Africa. That’s not all: the EU is preparing a 200 million euros package that puts migration and regional security at the centre of the (re)launched EU-Mauritania partnership.



Mauritania has been gaining strategic relevance for the EU due to growing migratory pressures and instability in the Sahel region. Last year, the number of migrants entering Spain irregularly increased by 82 per cent, mostly departing from Mauritania to the Canary Islands. This year, as of January, it is estimated that arrivals of irregular migrants entering Spain by sea have already shot up by almost 300 per cent.



New year, same story. It is not new for the EU to confront migration challenges with official trips to non-EU countries. Under the auspices of signing a partnership agreement, the EU is seeking to cough up a few million euros in exchange for hiding northward migration. In July 2023, VDL, together with the Dutch and Italian Prime Ministers, Mark Rutte and Georgia Meloni, flew to Tunisia to sign a billionaire cooperation deal with the Tunisian president Kaïs Saïed. Tunisia, as Mauritania, lies on a major migration route. The country has become one of the principal gatewaysfor irregular migrants attempting the perilous sea voyages in the hope of arriving into Europe, and for Tunisians seeking a freer and democratic future abroad.





Democratic Unrest Continues in Tunisia
By Laura

Disappointed, but not surprised. On 4 February, a second round of voting was organized in local Tunisian constituencies in which no candidates had been elected in the first round. Although 4.2 million voters were called to the polls, the participation rate reached only 12.44%. Not bad if considering that the first round at the end of December attracted even less citizens: 11.66%.



Step by step? Voters are boycotting the elections encouraged by the political opposition, which sees the ballots as another step to legitimize Kaîs Saîed’s authoritarian drift. In 2022, the Tunisian President amended the Constitution establishing a new system of two chambers. In Spring 2023, the first chamber, the Assembly of People’s Representatives (ARP), took office after legislative elections, which also faced significant voter alienation (11% participation). Now, these elections were intended to establish for the first time the secondary parliamentary chamber, the National Council of Regions and Districts, which will theoretically decide on the State budget and regional development projects.



Three, two, one, backslide! Saîed’s constitutional revision has changed Tunisia’s political establishment, from a parliamentary system to an ultra-presidential one. Since the prime minister was suspended and the Parliament dissolved in 2021, power has been centralized and democratic institutions basically dismantled. Several opposition leaders and businessmen, notably key political figures of the Islamic-conservatory party Ennahda have been imprisoned since 2023. Last week, Rached Ghannouchi, Ennahda’s long leader, has been sentenced to three years in prison, accused of receiving funds from foreign companies to finance the electoral campaigns of the party.





Now, a bit of culture...

In this section, we uncover some of the most listened and watched musicians, writers or YouTubers of the MENA or new publications, articles or books either from or on the region. If you have any suggestions, you’re always welcome to tell us via our email!



A Just Green: Green energy is at the top of the international agenda nowadays, but when speaking about it, few people think of the Arab region, vastly well-known for its extraction of fossil fuels. And yet, this world has immense and untapped potential for green energy, as Hamza Hamouchene and Katie Sandwell show in Dismantling Green Colonialism. Energy and climate justice in the Arab region.



The authors explore the region’s potential for energy transition, using a post-colonial lens to analyze the consequences of resource-grabbing and resource extraction. The book demands a just energy transition in the Arab region, exposing practices and policies that are protecting local elites, multilateral corporations and military regimes at the expense of climate justice. This is a refreshing analysis, interesting for anyone who wants to know more about class and power structures in a region of the world that thus far has never rhymed with “green energy”.





Green, Greener: Sanremo2024 - the Italian Music Festival that takes place in early February since 1951 - has been the subject of many headlines this week. Mainly, news concern the performance of the Italian rapper Ghali - often active in battles against discrimination and racism - who lit up the Festival on its final night with a powerful goodbye: “Stop the Genocide”.



Whether one agrees with his message or not, this performance is living proof of greater and wider European citizens’ engagement with the Israel-Palestine conflict and the dramatic events of Gaza.



Take a listen:Casa Mia” analyses our time through the eyes of an alien from a distant world, dealing with for the first time with the construction of borders and the struggle for a piece of land, a clear reference to the Gaza Strip and the Palestinian territory.







For any questions or suggestions, don’t hesitate to reach us out at [email protected]!



Learn more about EST at Our Website.



See you in two weeks, inshallah!

The Observatory







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