Does Raisi’s Death Mark a Turning Point?

By Luca and Fatin

Last Sunday, Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahiyan and six other people tragically lost their lives in a helicopter crash following an official visit to Azerbaijan. The causes of the accident are still unknown, but what is known is that the helicopter was manufactured in the US and is believed to be several decades old. Long-standing foreign sanctions on Iran have hinderedthe country's ability to acquire new aircraft or aircraft parts increasing the risk of possible accidents. The Islamic Republic (IRI), already facing hard times, has experienced another political blow, but, more impactful was the moral defeat it has endured, as the majority of Iranians celebrated the deaths of the officials.



Turning point in Iran’s history? Not Really. The death of the two figures was certainly unexpected, leading to a sudden power void in the political system. But this is unlikely to disrupt the state's functioning. The final word rests with the one and only Supreme Leader, not the president or any other government official. And this is not the first time a death jeopardises the IRI. The passing down of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, leader of the Iranian Revolution, 35 years ago marked the end of an era for the young Republic born only 10 years earlier. From revolution to pragmatism, but crisis in the middle. The 1989 constitutional amendments responded to the vacuum of power that Khomeini’s death had left and followed what the leader of the IRI had said in one of his last fatwas: government comes first! The appointment of Ali Khamenei as the Supreme Leader did indeed breach the rules as Khamenei did not meet the standard prerequisites for the position of marja 'iya, and the higher political involvement in religious matters did put at risk complex and fragile equilibria. But ehi, the IRI is still here, innit?



Back to present: the event has come at a particularly difficult time for the Iranian leadership, already grappling with internal challenges and regional conflicts. In the short term, Tehran has 50 days to hold elections to appoint a successor. The date has already been set for 28 June, and, in the meantime, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will serve as the interim president. On the horizon: this incident is likely to pose a significant challenge for the regime, which is still facing widespread public anger and frustration due to the harsh repression of recent protests and the inability to address the country’s socio-political and economic issues. But please, don’t overstate it. Tehran has been subject to several waves of protests throughout its recent history, and everytime analysts rush to claim that a new revolution is upcoming… the 2006 student protests against Ahmadinejad, the Green wave in 2009-2010, the 2017-2018 protests and now the “Pink Revolution''. Raisi's death has somehow shaken the internal governance, but as a weak and unpopular president both domestically and internationally, his passing is unlikely to alter the country’s future or influence the choice of the next supreme leader.





From Spring to Struggle: Desert Bloom for Tunisian Democracy Amid Repression
By Valentina

On 12th May, protesters flocked to the capital of Tunisia, clamoring for the release of opposition politicians, journalists, and activists imprisoned under the regime of President Kaïs Saïed. Not only: demonstrators were also demanding for a definitive date for the presidential election, tentatively scheduled for September/October 2024. Among those now detained is Sonia Dahmani, a lawyer and journalist critical of Saïed’s administration. Don’t worry Sonia, you’re not alone! Joined by Mourad Zeghidi and Borhen Bsaies, her arrest under dubious charges underscores a troubling erosion of press freedom in the country. In the last two years, dozens of Tunisian journalists, including Al Jazeera’s Samir Sassi, have been arrested, justifying it under the Decree 54 on cybercrime, a catch-all legal tool purportedly aimed to tackle “rumors” and “fake news”.



Don’t worry my friend! Indeed, international observers, particularly from the EU and the UN, have already expressed their concerns over the fairness of the electoral process. Quite sarcastic as the EU fosters security-oriented partnerships with Tunisia while closing their eyes to the repression of civil and political rights. Moreover, the National Syndicate of Tunisian Journalists recalling their hard-won victories for press freedom after 2011, demanded an end to Decree 54’s oppressive use. But fret not, the National Salvation Front, Tunisia's main opposition coalition took action by announcing a boycott of the presidential elections unless political prisoners are freed and judicial independence restored. But with just seven politicians announcing their candidacy, many either in jail or in exile, their chances are slim.





Iraq to Dismiss UN Mission After 20 Years

By Fatin

UNAMI bids farewell. In a recent letter to the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Iraq’s PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani announced his intention to end UNAMI – the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq – by 2025. UNAMI, which began in 2003 at the request of the Iraqi government, aimed to facilitate internal political dialogue and coordinate humanitarian and development aid in the country.



Baghdad throws everyone out.Al-Sudani’s move is not unprecedented; Iraq has previously requested international missions and foreign troops to leave the country. Last January, there was a demand for the departure of the US-led coalition fighting the Islamic State, as well as the UN mission focused on holding the jihadist group accountable for its crimes and liberating Iraqi territories.



Despite claims that UNAMI's departure is due to the fulfillment of its initial objectives, questions arise about whether its goals have actually been met. Iraq continues to grapple with internal conflicts, armed political groups, terrorist threats, and a fragile political and economic environment. In particular, vulnerable groups, including those displaced by conflicts and impacted by environmental degradation, are experiencing rising poverty rates. Additionally, concerns persist regarding human rights and accountability in a country that remains among the world’s most corrupted ones. The Iraqi government’s decision to conclude UNAMI’s mission seems to mark a shift in the country's post-conflict path, as Baghdad strives to achieve full sovereignty and self-governance.





Von der Leyen and Meloni Waste No Time

By Hafssa

Catch me if you can. After Lebanon, where the EU had unveiled an aid package, the next stop was Libya. Last week, EU Commission President Von der Leyen paid an official visit to the head of the Libyan Government of National Unit (GNU) Dbeibah to discuss energy cooperation and… migration. No surprises: the visit comes one week after Meloni met with Dbeibah and warlord Haftar (separately, of course), raising eyebrows among those who contend that the latter is weaponizing migration. A few days later, Dbeibah and his team showed up in Brussels to negotiate the lifting of the aviation ban on Libya. It’s a win-win, isn’t it?



I need your vote. The countdown to European elections, scheduled for 6-9 June, has begun, and Von der Leyen is not intending to waste any time. Migration is a central theme in the incumbent’s European People’s Party (EPP) and Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia. The Italian PM has indeed been, together with her Spanish counterpart Pedro Sanchez, a loyal travel mate across the region! The flow of migrants arriving at Europe’s shores might be a socio-economic burden, but it serves right-wing populism especially now that EP elections are around the corner.



Now, a bit of culture...

In this section, we uncover some of the most listened and watched musicians, writers or YouTubers of the MENA or new publications, articles or books either from or on the region. If you have any suggestions, you’re always welcome to tell us via our email!



Digging into history. Once upon a time, France and Britain fought for power in the Middle East, leaving behind a legacy of violence and instability. In A Line in the Sand: Britain, France and the Struggle that shaped the Middle East, historian James Barr covers foreign power competition from World War I to the creation of Israel in 1948, diving into the corridors of the infamous Sykes-Picot agreement. This book is a must-read for academics, students, and anyone interested in modern European politics or Middle Eastern history.