In the light of increasing instability and surging boat departures from the Tunisian coast, the EU had finalized a deal with the southern Mediterranean country this summer. The deal was easy and clear: Brussels’ money in exchange for tighter border control. But clarity is not enough sometimes, and the deal is now teetering.



“Less for less”, some EU scholars would say, but, beyond moralism and ethics, this is what the EU does in the Southern Neighbourhood - the EU principal policy framework which involves Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria and Tunisia, and this is how diplomacy works when lights go out. After a few months of waiting, but this is routine since payments from Brussels always take time, a disbursement of 127 million euros was announcedin mid-September. What could go wrong?



Early last week, Kaïs Saïed - the President of Tunisia - refused the money, accusing the EU of disregarding the MoU signed in July, and laughing off its “derisory” amount. If this reflects the pitfalls of engaging with authoritarian states, the move also shed light on the limited leverage the EU has with the southern shore of the Mediterranean.



Rather, Saïed is doing arm wrestling by seeking to get more money and/or without conditions to reduce financial pressure over Tunis. Will it work? Only time will tell, but from being a model of cooperation in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, Tunisia is once again the bad pupil of the Neighbourhood class.



Conflict escalation in Syria

The 12-year conflict in Syria is taking a new trajectory. On October 5th, a drone attack on the Homs Military Academy killed at least 100 people. The Assad regime, who had claimed that the country is safe, blamed the attack on what he referred to as foreign-backed terrorist groups. In response, the Russian-backed Syrian forces launched high scale attacks on the opposition-controlled governorates of Idlib and Aleppo, where the rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham exerts significant control. The shelling has targeted civilian infrastructure such as hospitals, and Internally Displaced Persons camps, killing dozens and displacing at least 20,000 people.



The drone attack holds political significance because it shows that the regime has not won the war. President Assad has attempted to portray Syria as a safe country, and this move gave impetus to his readmission into the Arab League in May 2023. However, the war that erupted in 2011 in response to protests is still raging; state and non-state actors are still using the Syrian battlefield to compete for political clout, and the prospects of a peaceful Syria remain minimal.



Furthermore, the fact that the identity of the perpetrator is not publicly known captures the complexity of the Syrian scene. The country is torn between a panoply of state and non-state actors whose interests are disparate and contradictory. For instance, one main reason why Türkiye is embroiled in Syria is to fight the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The rebel group has claimed responsibility for the Ankara bomb attack which took place near the Interior Ministry in early October. Since then, Ankara has intensified its drone attacks on PKK rebels in Syria.



On the humanitarian side, the string of attacks shows that Syria is not safe for the return of Syrian refugees, contrary to what some politicians in neighboring countries (e.g., Türkiye, Jordan) posited to push for the so-called voluntary return. The truth is that Syrians who have not fled are trapped in a lingering conflict with many byproducts: a debilitated infrastructure, a fragile economy, and a bleak outlook.



Iranian Nobel Awardee behind bars

The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to the Iranian activist Narges Mohammadi, who is detained in Tehran’s Evin prison for human rights activism. The Iranian government, which accuses Mohammadiof spreading propaganda against the state and engaging in acts against the country’s national security, described the Nobel Committee’s decision as being politically-motivated. Fabricating charges and denying fair trial has commonly been used by the Iranian regime to silence men and women who defy state authority, including those holding dual nationality.



Mohammadihas been advocating for human rights for the past thirty years, but she rose to prominence thanks to her leading role in the Iranian protest movement. The latter erupted in September last year after the death of Mahsa Amini, allegedly due to violence after she had been arrested by the morality police - formally known as the Guidance Patrol or Persian Gasht-e Ershad - for breaching the dress code. Although the movement principally advocates for women’s rights, it is still an inclusive one, hence the slogan Zan, Zendegi, Azadi (Women, Life, Freedom). From prison, the Nobel Laureate continues her advocacy by calling out violence against female inmates, including sexual abuse and solitary confinement.



Mohammadi is the second Iranian woman to earn the Nobel Peace Prize. In 2003, lawyer Shirin Ebadiwas awarded the Prize for her extensive work in human rights despite regime pressure. This is a symbolic victory for all Iranian women who yearn for freedom, respect and dignity.

Now, a bit of a cultural part...

In this section, we uncover some of the most listened and watched musicians, writers or youtubers of the Arab world or new publications, articles or books either from or on the region. If you have any suggestions, you’re always welcome to tell us via our email!



Football first!After the amazing and surprising performance of Morocco at the 2022 World Cup and the new Arab era with more than 840 million euros spent in the only Saudi League for the summer session, MENA is rising to prominence in international football: Morocco will co-host, together with Spain and Portugal, the 2030 Football World Cup!



Book your tickets in advance, but also our weekly suggestion (spoiler that’s a book): My Fourth Time, We Drowned, by Sally Hayden, depicts the hidden, dark side of migration and their unknown dynamics too often omitted: from international corruption to NGOs’ negligence and social media within the migrant perspective.



Let us know your thoughts on the migration industry in the MENA!