Truce signed, EU trip and the forgotten West Bank

By Andrea and Luca

Note: Due to the evolving nature of the situation, please note that the news is current at the time of writing (22 November). This piece of news is not intended to show any position of the Observatory and its members who express their solidarity to all the people who are suffering under the noise of bombs and rockets.



After more than a month of non-stop bombing and fighting, a four-day truce was announced on Wednesday morning. But there’s no time to breathe, and new obstacles have already come up. Start, duration, compliance and logistics are not technical matters when it comes to imposing a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, but Qatar has quickly reassured over the truce that is supposed to start on Friday morning (today). The deal will see the release of 50 Israeli women and children in exchange for 150 Palestinians jailed in Israel, but also will give time for humanitarian aid to access Gaza Strip and seek to address what has become one of the most dramatic humanitarian crises in the world in less than 60 days.



Commission trip to the Middle East: Amidst the struggle for consensus, EU officials have begun their tour around the Middle East to further diplomatic efforts in the region amidst the escalating crisis. This week, Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, visited Israel, Palestine, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Jordan. But no meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu. While Ursula - obviously Mrs. VDL, who else can she be?? - traveled to Egypt and Jordan where she handed over EU humanitarian supplies to the Egyptian Red Crescent Society. But debates over the EU’s aid for Palestine have also been heated in Brussels. After an in-house review demonstrated that the European assistance has not reached Hamas in any way, commissioners are now still discussing if new conditions should be imposed for the receipt of such aid. At the same time, further financial help for Israel is also being considered, but unity does not overflow in Brussels, and the only possible compromise is prioritizing that Gaza does not fall into Hamas’ hands.



A maritime humanitarian alternative? Meanwhile, foreign minister Kombos from Cyprus is close to forcing a plan with Israel to establish a maritime corridor that would allow the entrance of humanitarian aid to Gaza through the Cypriot island. The idea could serve as an alternative to the Rafah crossing in Egypt, which has been interrupted this Friday because of the communications blackout and lack of fuel, as reported by the UN. While supplies are no longer going in, people are certainly getting out. Over 6000 citizens with foreign passports have crossed the Rafah border towards Egypt since the beginning of the attacks. Hundreds of Egyptians and injured Palestinians are also passing over, according to the authorities.



Last, but not least, the West Bank: with all eyes set on terror in Gaza, the escalation of violence in the occupied West Bank is slipping under the radar. However, according to the Palestinian Authority, over 200 West Bank Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli army or settlers since October 7th. After Hamas’ unexpected attacks on Israel, the IDF strengthened security measures and furthered the limitations on freedom of movement for the Palestinian citizens of the West Bank, increasing uncertainty and difficulties for thousands of Palestinians who work or study in Jerusalem. This heated context has aggravated the settlers’ brutality, resulting in the forced eviction of nearly 1000 Palestinians from their homes in the last weeks. Anthony Blinken, US secretary of state, and Volker Turk, the UN high commissioner for human rights are some of the international voices that have urged Israeli officials to adopt measures to end the settlers’ violence against the Palestinian population in the West Bank.





Egypt: trembling ground amid economic malaise and loyal elections

By Blanca

Keeping its head above water. The strangling inflation that harasses the country since earlier this year seems to be loosening its grip. Although these are seemingly hopeful news, there’s not much to celebrate. First, the decrease is negligible compared to how critical the situation remains: 38.1 points of “core” inflation with respect to 39.7 in September (data from the Central Egyptian Bank). Further, the economic situation in Egypt carries on in a concerning fashion. The country had to sell Treasury bills ensuring an immediate shot of $1.61 billion, but this is no real vaccine to its economic malaise. The public debt is still the highest in the region, while the worrying debt trajectory has not been addressed as the country’s annual deficit shows. In early November, Fitch had downgraded Egyptand four main banks, including the National Bank of Egypt, from B to B-. The welcome to the junk territory comes as the economic consequences of the Gaza refugee influx loom over the country amid dropping tourism revenues, shifting Gulf investments and increasing border pressures. In short, prospects are not as hopeful as one may have thought at first sight.



Upcoming elections. Egypt’s situation could only become more interesting if we added some electoral tension. Oh, wait! Elections have been pushed forward to December 10-12. Three presidential candidates will run in the hopes of defeating incumbent President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. None has any chance to even tickleal-Sisi. All together, they reached only 84 MP endorsements. Al-Sisi counts with the largest number of endorsements (424) and is expected to obtain a sweeping victory. But if you want to know more about the elections, look no further: the Observatory will be releasing a special piece on that shortly after the results are out!





A new face in Algiers one year before the presidential election

By Laura

Algerian President, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, announced on November 11th the replacement of his prime minister, Aymen Benabderrahmane. Nadir Larbaoui, a trusted figure for the President, will now take the reins of the government. Larbaoui pursued a lengthy diplomatic career, acting as Algeria's permanent representative to the United Nations and holding ambassadorial roles in Pakistan and Egypt. His previous experience in international affairs positions him as a leader with a global perspective to address the challenges facing Algeria.



No surprise: the reasons for Benabderrahmane's dismissal have not been specified yet, but a change in the executive has long been on the President's agenda. Tebboune had been making public his dissatisfaction with the management of the tensions caused by the food shortages and the implementation of certain presidential decisions. Not only! A month ago, the president ordered a major reshuffle of the presidential cabinet. Although the secrecy surrounding this measure stated that it was not intended to replace the existing administrations in their competencies, many saw it as the setting up of a duplicate government.



13 months before the elections. All this occurs just one year before the presidential elections that will take place in December 2024. Although Tebboune has not yet made his intentions public, many suggest that he is already preparing for a second mandate. Be that as it may, experts don’t have doubts: there is currently no one capable of confronting him politically. The support of the army and the lack of real political opposition in an even narrower political arena leave no room for rash forecasts.





Saudi Arabia takes the lead in the region?

By Fatin 

The emergency Riyadh Summit on November 10th marked a historic moment. Originally planned as two separate summits, Saudi Arabia broadened the scope to include not only the Arab League, but also the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC). Adding to the intrigue was the presence of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, making his first visit to the Kingdom since the Chinese-brokered deal in March. The leaders urged for international action to stop Israeli attacks, advocating for a two-state solution and called on the UN Security Council to address the Israeli aggressions and curtail its illegal occupation of Palestine. Only five days later the UNSC adopted a resolution calling for immediate and extended humanitarian pauses,as well as the creation of humanitarian corridors in the Gaza Strip.



Walking the line: Mohammed bin Salman - the already well-known Saudi Crown Prince - condemned the ongoing aggression in Gaza, blaming Israeli authorities for the crimes against Palestinians, and stressing the imperative to end the occupation, siege, and settlements. That’s it? Not really: the speeches from Saudi authorities seemed to be more symbolic statements supporting the Palestinian cause, as the willingness to control pro-Palestinian sentiment domestically does not demonstrate a real detachment from Israel and the normalisation process. 



Placing the two summits in Saudi Arabia - the heart of the Islamic World - aspired to show the Kingdom's remit in the region and its intention to achieve a resolution of the conflict in Palestine. This strategic move showcased Saudi Arabia's willingness to assume a leading and facilitator role, reaffirming a stance that has long swung between Western and Eastern powers. In contrast, Qatar seemed to take more tangible steps in the Israel-Hamas conflict, positioning itself as a real key intermediary. The Gulf emirate engaged in successful negotiations for the release of several hostages, showcasing Qatar's diplomatic efforts as a crucial factor in the potential de-escalation between the conflicting parties.





WiderMed: goodbye to the West and non-stop insecurity

By Laura

Military takeovers have been in the spotlight, but it is when the media are fed up with it that the worst comes: up to three million people were internally displaced and 3,000 civilians killed in 2022 alone in the Central Sahel. The last attack took place early last week in Burkina Faso’s Centre-North region. Unidentified men assaulted the village of Zaongo, killing at least 70 civilians, many of whom were women, children and elderly, and destroying property by setting it on fire. The EU and the US have urged Burkinabe authorities to shed light on the massacre and determine responsibilities. But only a couple of days ago a mass grave was found by Malian authorities in Kidal - the stronghold of Malian rebels in Northern Mali - after a month of ongoing clashes with the Tuareg rebels in the North.



Paris ready to leave: The rise in violence comes at the same time that the French army has begun the final phase of its military withdrawal from Niger, after the coup in July. French Colonel Gaudillière stated last week that the withdrawal is expected to be completed by the end of December.



Return flight sold out: France is not alone on the way back, and the UN is Paris’ new travel buddy. Will they get along? Probably not, but they seem to share the same destiny, at least in the central Sahel. After the UN Security Council voted in June to conclude its peace-keeping mission in Mali - after 10 years since its establishment, UN peacekeepers have begun a complicated withdrawal expected to end by December. It came as no surprise the news of attacks against peacekeepers over the last months. What’s next for the West in the region? Is it just relocating or a definitive goodbye? How will the EU and its MSs recast their approach?





Now, a bit of culture...

In this section, we uncover some of the most listened and watched musicians, writers or youtubers of the MENA or new publications, articles or books either from or on the region. If you have any suggestions, you’re always welcome to tell us via our email!

An HD Image. The MENA region is the theater of entangled developments, and while it is often described as an unstable region (which it is), instability is just a trait among others. The war in Gaza unleashed a deluge of misinformation, showing that misconception is not a thing of the past.



The Political Science of the Middle East: Theory and Research since the Arab Uprisings does the perfect job at the perfect moment! Edited by Marc Lynch, Jillian Schwedler and Sean Yom, this book compiles the contributions of leading scholars with hands-on experience. From authoritarianism and violence, to migration and displacement, this book offers a high-definition image of a complex region. A must-read whether you are an academic, a student, or simply a book addict!



Take a look: we would like to suggest you listen to Eberhard Kienle’s episode on the Sciences Po podcast Conversations with Sergei Guriev, where the provost of Sciences Po interviews researchers in the fields of democracy, populism, and democratic backsliding. You can find the episode here or on Spotify.



HEY! That’s not it! The second episode of MENA Stories - the Observatory’s monthly podcast that uncovers, explains, and narrates the Middle East and North Africa - is out!

Hosted by Hafssa Fakher Elabiari, we’ve tackled the upcoming COP28 and the looming spectre of the climate crisis. In less than one week, more than 70,000 delegates from all over the world will meet in Dubai to discuss the future of climate global action. Taking an action is now a must, and all our eyes will be on negotiations in the UAE. What can we expect from COP28? What are the main issues on the agenda? And the main actors? Will COP28 pave the way for genuine change or offer empty promises?



Take a listen to Approching COP28: Grueling Negotiations Amidst Gushing Oil Wells!