The War in Gaza is Roiling the Region

Note: Due to the evolving nature of the situation, please note that the news is current at the time of writing (25 October). This piece of news is not intended to show any position of the Observatory and its members who express their solidarity to all the people who are suffering under the noise of bombs and rockets.



Israel’s long-announced ground operation started last week, Gaza City was encircled and fighting moved into the streets. Israel is firm on its position. No ceasefire, no fuel: the only possible solution is Hamas defeat. The humanitarian situation is devastating and the ground operation is likely to lead to a further steep rise in the death toll. The UN reports more than 10,300 deaths in Gaza, while news from the Strip states that cemeteries are full and there’s no place for burials. But the worse has probably yet to come, and any occupation of Gaza is likely to be long-lasting.



Palestine’s Relatives. Treason or Wisdom? The positions of MENA countries look as interesting as they are confusing! On one side, there is the straightforward anti-Israel camp, which condemns Israel and stands with Palestine, such as Algeria and Iran. On the other, there are countries that oscillate between Israel and Palestine, striving to support the Palestinians without jeopardising their interests with Israel. Here, public opinion influences state behaviour vis-à-vis the conflict. In countries where Palestine has always had a special place, the slightest positive move towards Israel is perceived as treason for Palestinians. For example, Egypt’s reluctance to open the Rafah crossing was largely interpreted as a signal of President al-Sisi being a puppet of Israel.



Don’t forget the Abraham Accords! Signatory countries are in trouble. Bahrain recalled its ambassador and cut flights with Israel. In Morocco, protesters are chanting ‘normalisation is treason,’ and ‘the people want the fall of normalisation.’ Ironically, the authorities have refrained this time from cracking down on protests, mainly to balance between the two disparate images of King Mohammed VI heading the Quds Committee and Rabat normalising relations with Israel. 



Stretching relations with the US: If fighting Hamas is what matters for Israel and Uncle Sam, the roads are many, but not all of them are walkable together! The White House has called for a three-day truce, and has warned of an Israeli reoccupation of Gaza. Ties are far from being cut, but the US politics has given its demands: at least don’t waste our money!

Back to normal? Algiers’ Ambassador in Madrid is Back!

Good news. Algeria will send a new ambassador to Spain, ending a 19-month absence. The appointee, Abdelfetah Daghmoum, has already held senior diplomatic roles in Algeria, Guinea Conakry, and Spain.



In March 2022, Algiers recalled its ambassador to Spain in reaction to the development of Spanish-Moroccan relations on the Western Sahara: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez had backed  Rabat’s 2007 autonomy plan - Western Sahara would be an independent territory falling under Moroccan sovereignty - and described it as “the most serious, realistic and credible basis” for ending the Sahara dispute. 



Aside from the diplomatic breakup, the government vetoed Spanish companies in favour of their Italian counterparts, and stopped the refoulement of migrants from Spain. Additionally, it threatened to suspend gas exports to Spain, and fostered energy collaboration with Italy, all amid the Ukrainian War and Europe’s fragile energy reserves.



For Spain, balancing is wisdom, and indeed, words are important. Sánchez’s 78th UN’s General Assembly speech juggled between Algiers and Rabat by refraining from mentioning the autonomy plan, and maintaining that Spain backs a “political and mutually acceptable solution.” The mild declarations in favour of Palestine were also music to Algiers’ ears too. 



The appointment of a new ambassador comes as no surprise. Getting the ambassador’s office back to work gives hope that Algerian-Spanish relations will get back to normal. However, while Morocco determines its alliance circle based on the Sahara stance, Algeria chooses its enemies based on their position vis-à-vis Morocco’s sovereignty claims over the Western Sahara. Hence, Spanish-Algerian relations may get back to normal, but maintaining normality will be like walking on eggshells.



Syria: the resurgence of proxies looms over prospects for resolutions

Last week, hostilities sparked again in Syria and Iraq, with the US deploying 300 more troops to protect its bases from allegedly Iran-backed groups. In less than a month, at least 38 attacks have been directed to American HQs. While the US has responded and the Pentagon has accused Tehran, it is difficult to tell the extent to which Iran is involved in orchestrating each of those attacks.



Some experts worry that the latest developments may lead to a regional escalation, embroiling war-torn Syria in a new conflict that would throw it in the abyss. Indeed, neither the country’s infrastructure nor civilians can withstand a new escalation, and the war is already taking an unexpected turn with Russian and regime attacks in opposition-held Idlib. Human Rights Watch tackles the regime’s targeting of civilians and use of prohibited weapons like cluster munitions. The latest attack killed at least 60 civilians and targeted 43 public facilities. This attack on Assad’s opposition forces comes after two events: first, the reignition of protests in the South by Druze activists, and second, in the northeast, ethnic Arabs’ protests against the Syrian Defence Forces (SDF), a group of Kurdish militias opposed to the Syrian regime and that have managed to keep their own administration.



In the international arena, Bashar Al-Assad has managed to push away the opposition support, but it has failed to create the aura of normalisation that it expected. The failure of diplomacy, exacerbated by the illicit trade of Captagon that sparked tensions with neighbouring countries, left Syria in an unstable limbo, and a further escalation risks reversing the country’s trajectory into a new pattern of conflict.



The (Un)Frozen Western Sahara Conflict is Boiling

The Western Sahara territorial conflict is boiling. On October 29th, four explosions hit a residential area in Es-Semara, killing one person and injuring three. At first, the incident was erroneously attributed to a gas explosion, but Moroccans took the news with a pinch of salt because the testimonies point to a deliberate attack.



Keep calm: Moroccan officials and the state-affiliated news outlet Maghreb Arabe Presse diluted the news, perhaps to contain public anger. Nearly a day later, Polisario claimed responsibility for the attack. Separately, the United Nations Security Council issued a new resolution extending MINURSO’s mandate until October 2024, and signalling that the dispute is ongoing despite Rabat’s attempts to conceal the fragile climate by inaugurating development projects. Even the King’s latest Green March speech focused largely on the Sahara and African cooperation, overlooking the tense regional climate, ongoing protests, and the earthquake survivors facing displacement, precarity, and harsh weather.



The Western Sahara dispute is a result of colonial border delineation, miscommunication and greedy geopolitical aspirations. Over the past years, the Sahara question has dominated Morocco’s foreign policy, with Rabat using the Sahara file to filter its friends.



For some, it is the Occupied Sahara, but for others, it is the Moroccan Sahara. Yet, between the two, it is a population stuck in the middle of everlasting geopolitical games. Will the latest developments break the camel’s back? Ironically, Moroccan-Algerian relations are already broken. So it remains uncertain how events will unfold. What is certain, however, is that the time has come for the warring parties to sit at the negotiation table and stop throwing chairs at each other. Otherwise, the protracted Moroccan-Algerian rivalry will continue cooking at high heat. Let’s hope it does not burn!



What a Relief! Loss and Damage Deal Concluded

With the COP28 in Dubai approaching, countries have just struck the ‘Loss and Damage Fund’ deal. After five tense negotiation rounds, notably a two-day emergency meeting in Abu Dhabi, consensus was reached: industrialised countries would supply funds to the climate-affected developing countries to manage the symptoms of climate change. The Fund, agreed at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, will be temporarily administered by the World Bank. And while the deal is far from perfect, it is still a breakthrough to kickstart COP28 and to advance Article 8 of the Paris Agreement on loss and damage.



Moral responsibility matters? The Fund will be a moral opportunity for developed countries to make up for climate damage. Indeed, the G20 countries are responsible for most of the greenhouse emissions. But countries that contribute the least to climate change are the ones that suffer its symptoms due to the lack of funds, resilience, and willingness. However, it remains to see the extent to which it will cover climate-inflicted disasters. Striking a balance between donors and beneficiaries is delicate, let alone maintaining it in the coming years. For this reason, the funding process should be sprinkled with accountability, commitment, and innovation to prevent the allocation of so-called “placebo funds.”



So, while there is no ‘undo button’ for cancelling climate damages, the Loss and Damage Fund is a preliminary step to mitigate climate change and build climate resilience. The bad news is that the road will be long and bumpy, but the good news is that consistent action pays off!

Now, a bit of a cultural part...

In this section, we uncover some of the most listened and watched musicians, writers or youtubers of the MENA or new publications, articles or books either from or on the region. If you have any suggestions, you’re always welcome to tell us via our email!



Further Inside: the MENA is back on top of Brussels’ agenda, but what does the EU’s engagement with its closest MENA neighbours, the Mediterranean, look like?



This week we point to The European Union’s Engagement with the Southern Mediterranean, written by Maria Giulia Amadio Viceré and Giulio Venneri. 

Directly from the heart of Brussels, it tackles the question of European integration within the EU and its MSs’ neighbouring policy and unfolds the institutional functioning of EU policies across different sectors!



DON’T MISS IT OUT:  The first episode of MENA Stories - the Observatory’s monthly podcast that uncovers, explains, and narrates the Middle East and North Africa - is out! 



Hosted by Hafssa Fakher Elabiari, we’ve covered Iran’s movement protests sparked in reaction to the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini. More than one year later, it’s worth asking: what does the protest movement look like today? Has the government’s response changed? Has the movement been successful? And if so, to what extent?



Take a listen to MENA Stories at: Episode 1 in Spotify.