Clouds over Saïed: is Tunisia default possible?

Tunisia has recently been in the spotlight for refusing EU funds in exchange for tighter border controls, as agreed in the July deal finalised with the European Commission - Take a look at our last number to know more about it. But this has dangerously shifted the attention from the actual issue: Tunisia’s budget.



A week ago, official documents were released showing Tunisia’s external debt is expected to record a 40% rise in 2024 amid lack of foreign funding. The amount of debt to domestic GDP will be slightly below 80%, the fourth highest value in the MENA region and among the ten highest in the whole African continent. In early April, Saïed had rejected a third IMF bailout programme that would have provided the country with a $1.9 billion loan in exchange for market-oriented structural reforms. Different problems, same therapy from the IMF, and analysts had clapped Saïed’s move as right despite widespread astonishment in the international community. But an increasing gap between Tunisia’s financing needs and its abilities to mobilise new funding had led Fitch Ratings to further downgrade the country’s default rating to CCC- in June. Domestic borrowing has thus become Saïed’s flagship policy, and open-market operations have been its main tool, paving the way for greater politicisation in central banking. But his debt trick mechanism is likely to run out soon, and the future will hardly be rosy.

Gaza’s siege, the EU’s bickering and reactions from the MENA

Note: Due to the evolving nature of the situation, please note that the news is current at the time of writing (25 October). This piece of news is not intended to show any position of the Observatory and its members who express their solidarity to all the people who are suffering under the noise of bombs and rockets.



Hamas’ unexpected attack on Israel's borders led Benjamin Netanyahu - Israel’s Prime Minister - to declare “full war” and impose a complete blockade on Gaza, cutting food, water and electricity. The consequences for the population have been devastating: more than 5,000 people have died in Gaza, while about 1.4 million are believed to be internally displaced. Israel’s siege has tightened further and attacks have intensified over the last week, while analysts have warned of a possible conflict expansion on the ground to Israel's northern border with Lebanon and Hezbollah - the Lebanese paramilitary organisation traditionally on the front line against Israel.



If this looks more like fanta-politics at the moment - there’s no reason why Israel and Lebanon might want to expand the conflict and open a second front, although clashes are frequently recorded - the international dimension of the war seems to be prevailing, and the EU knows it. In the last week, European media have been “clogged” by Von der Leyen’s trip to Israel: “This is the moment for unity. This is the moment to join forces against terror. And Israel can count on the EU”, the Queen said. But no reference was made either to international law or to EU support for Palestinian statehood, and EU diplomats and capitals got furious.



Guidelines come first! Joseph Borrell - the head of the European External Action Service and Vice-President of the Commission - warned that procedures and guidelines for foreign policy must be respected, while Brussels diplomats said VDL is overstepping her role. Charles Michel - the President of the European Council - had indeed earlier declared that a full siege of Gaza does not fit with international law, stating the EU’s support as conditional upon it, while the Mideast Peace Process is seen as the only possible option in Brussels. But is it? The EU's defence of the collapsed Oslo paradigm - the two-state solution - risks getting nowhere, as it is the underestimation of the effects of the normalisation process.



Not only the EU, MENA differentiations: the Palestinian cause is a highly divisive issue especially in the region it lays its roots. If Morocco is walking on eggshells to balance the Quds Committee leadership and the Abraham Accords, Egypt and Jordan agreed on one thing: no refugees in Egypt and Jordan. From afar, this position seems controversial amid the dire situation in Gaza, but for both countries, the aim is to prevent the conflict from crossing their national borders and inhibit a potential Israeli incursion into Gaza. Türkiye has also been hesitating since the beginning of the war, too many to make happy: the Palestinians, the Israeli, the Turks, but also some blurred ties with Hamas. Qatar has instead been more active and, together with Egypt, mediated the release of two hostages from Hamas captivity. Saudi Arabia is also monitoring the situation, likely to freeze its progress on the normalization with Israel, at least temporarily.



State responses vary, but not people: citizens across the MENA are on an equal foot. No to occupation and apartheid, this is the slogan that protesters reiterate. From Morocco and Algeria to Lebanon and Jordan, people from various backgrounds stood together to condemn Israel’s war on Gaza. This is no surprise since many grew up reading the poems of Mahmoud Darwish and the books of Ghassan Kanafani. For them, Palestine is the foreign national cause. But support to Palestinians has been strong also in Western squares. In Europe, pro-Palestine marches are taking place despite restrictions. In Amsterdam, Barcelona, London, Paris and many other cities, demonstrators have called for a ceasefire in Gaza, widening the schism between the European constituency and Brussels.

Sweden: Welcome to NATO?

This week, President Erdoğan made an unexpected move. After months of lingering negotiations, he finally submitted Sweden’s NATO membership bill to the parliament. The Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson welcomed Ankara’s move. It is likely that the parliament would approve the legislation since Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party takes the lead. Experts maintain that the President is calibrating Ankara’s foreign policy towards Europe, and it remains to see how developments would unfold.



Sweden and Finland have forgone their non-alignment position following the onset of the Ukrainian war. While negotiations have been tense yet fruitful for Finland, Türkiye vetoed Sweden’s membership for what it deems to be security concerns. Ankara claims that Stockholm is taking a soft stance towards the Kurdistan Workers' Party, known as the PKK. At the same time, Türkiye is in sharp disagreement with Sweden over a court decision rejecting the Turkish request to deport individuals accused of being Gülen members. According to Turkish authorities, the Gülen movement orchestrated the 2016 failed coup attempt.



Iran’s sanctions: is the EU the hidden hero?

If the twilight of the Iranian summer has been rather hot for Tehran amid prisoner exchanges and new alliances with the access to the BRICS, autumn has not actually lowered temperatures in the old Persia.



Last week: the European Council has decided to keep restrictive measures against Iran, deleting the “Transition Day” (18 October) - providing for the lift of specific sanction measures - as envisaged under the JCPOA. The E3 group – the European shore of the JCPOA agreement consisting of France, Germany and the United Kingdom – has also renewed its sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran. But wasn’t a US-Iran rapprochement underway, innit?



It might sound odd, but the E3 sanctions renewal seems to be aimed at keeping the JCPOA alive: the UN has lifted its measures as provided, thus avoiding the activation of the snapback - the UN-set mechanism that would have brought into force six previous Iran-related UNSC expired resolutions. If the snapback would have led to the definitive collapse of the JCPOA, European measures seek to safeguard a stable sanctioning framework while keeping the dialogue within the established dialogue pattern.



Time for a toast? Too early, store your wine glasses in the shelf: US Presidential elections are likely to postpone it further, and de-escalation won’t necessarily bring Tehran and Washington back to the JCPOA.



An Unusual Ambassador in Paris

Last week, King Mohammed VI nominated six ambassadors to China, Egypt, France, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States. The appointment does not reveal any peculiarities, not until we reach the Paris ambassador: Samira Sitail. Born in the suburbs of Paris, Sitail is a Franco-Moroccan journalist. She occupied various positions in the media in Morocco and abroad, but she is best known for her long career at Morocco’s national channel 2M.



If Sitail’s credentials beg questions on her eligibility, her proximity to the royal palace makes up for her alleged shortcomings, making her an ideal candidate for Rabat. Just over a month ago, her appearance on BFM TV and France 5 to fiercely defend Morocco’s approach to foreign help during the earthquake raised eyebrows. For some, the journalist revealed patriotism but for others, her impulsive statements risk driving Morocco and France to the brink of breakup.



Over the past years, Franco-Moroccan relations have taken a tense turn. In early 2023, the King withdrew ambassador Mohammed Benchaaboun from Paris, a move that occurs in extraordinary cases. Amid American and Israeli support for Morocco’s sovereignty claims over the Western Sahara, Rabat is no longer satisfied with the Élysée’s ambivalent stance. So one seeks full sovereignty support over the contested territory, while the other firmly supports the United Nations-led process of self-determination. The Pegasus affair also accounts for the deterioration of bilateral relations. France claims that the Moroccan secret services have used the Pegasus spyware to spy on several officials, including the President, an allegation that Rabat denies.



Therefore, the appointment of Sitail sends mixed signals and it remains to be seen how the Rabat-Paris saga would unfold. Honeymoon? Divorce? Who knows?



Libyan floods and telecommunication blockade

Between the night of 6 and 7 October, the telecommunications system in Libya's second largest city, Benghazi, was cut for more than three days, with the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) issuing a statement calling on “Eastern authorities to urgently restore telecommunications in Benghazi''. This blockade comes just one month after the devastating floods caused by storm Daniel, affecting Derna and neighbouring cities in the eastern part of the country. The political conflict in the country was said to have deeply affected the response to the natural disaster. Libya is indeed divided in two opposing governments, each claiming political control over the country. On the one hand, the East is supposed to be the strongest part, controlling most of the Libyan territory and led by Marshall Khalifa Haftar, head of the Libyan National Army (LNA). On the other hand, the government in Tripoli is backed internationally and is governed by the Government of National Unity.

According to some of the latest figures, more than 250,000 people were targeted for humanitarian assistance. Despite this, Haftar and his sons are using this situation to exert control, blocking the entry of journalists or humanitarian NGOs. Moreover, it is feared that this blockade is obscuring the outcome of clashes in the area between followers of Mahdi al-Barghati (a former defense minister in the GNA) and Haftar’s clan.

Now, a bit of a cultural part...

In this section, we uncover some of the most listened and watched musicians, writers or youtubers of the MENA or new publications, articles or books either from or on the region. If you have any suggestions, you’re always welcome to tell us via our email! 



Further Inside: Edward Said’s infamous book - Orientalism - published in 1978 - never ages and is dramatically still relevant at the time of the resurgence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. 



Painting the dichotomous image between West and East, Said explains the new Middle East through the lens of the West, a distant and critical gaze that questions the exotic, primitive and mysterious tales of the nearest East. 

A chef-d'oeuvre for anyone who wishes to understand the prevalence of prejudices and misconceptions about the region!

Young researchers in Madrid! On 9 October, the VI Euromed Young Researchers Forum, organized by the EuroMeSCo Network took place in the premises of Casa Árabe in Madrid, with the title “Bridging divides: exploring youth approaches to conflict resolution in the changing Euro-Mediterranean region”. Our colleague Pablo presented in the first panel his proposal New conflict resolution approaches: the case of Libya, where he presented paths to move forward in the Libyan conflict.